Politics

Midterm Election Odds Update Following Government Shutdown

by
Samantha Gordon
October 1, 2025

The US government officially entered a shutdown at 12:01 AM today after Congress failed to pass a funding bill before the midnight deadline. The Senate vote fell short of the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation, leading to a halt in many federal operations, except for essential services such as law enforcement and national security.

Hundreds of thousands of federal employees face furlough without immediate pay. The shutdown stems from a deadlock between Republicans and Democrats, who differ mainly over healthcare funding and Medicaid cuts. With negotiations stalled, there is no clear timeline for resolution.

Constituents are looking for someone to blame for this shutdown, and with the midterm elections only 13 months away, political sports betting sites have adjusted their odds to reflect the current status.

Senate Leadership

The following two political prop bets are not asking whether Senator Schumer will retain his position as Senate Minority Leader, but rather whether he’ll retain his seat in 2026.

Chuck Schumer To Be Re-Elected As Senator For New York At The 2028 US Senate Election?

Yes -135
No -105
BetUS

Schumer Re-Elected As US Senator?

Yes -135
No -105
BetOnline

In both cases, Schumer is projected to retain his seat, but the odds against him are also in the negative. As of this writing, Schumer has no challenger on either side of the aisle in his New York district.

US House Balance Of Power

Since every seat in the US House is up for election every two years, there is always the potential for an upheaval in the balance of power. Currently, the GOP holds a 219-213 advantage in the House.

GOP/Republicans To Lose Their House Majority?

Yes +300
BetUS

Which Party Will Win The Most Seats After 2026 US House of Representatives Elections?

Republicans +160
Democrats -240
BetUS

There is room to shop the odds for the best payout, but in both cases above, the DNC is favored to become the majority party following the 2025 midterms.

US Senate Balance Of Power

There are also odds for which party will hold a majority in the Senate after election day in November 2026.

2026 Senate Elections – Senate Control

Republicans -400
Democrats +250
BetUS

Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage in the Senate and are projected to retain that majority. Thirty-five seats are up for election in 2026.

Congressional Balance Of Power

The following lines combine both legislative bodies into solitary lines, but also project the same outcomes as the previously mentioned props – a GOP-controlled US Senate and a Democrat-controlled US House.

2026 Midterm Elections – Which Party Will Control House of Representatives and Senate?