With college football set to enter its second season under the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, NCAAF sportsbooks are already shaping what an early playoff bracket could look like.
Futures lines have been updated after three weeks of play in the 2025-26 season, offering a glimpse at which programs are in the driver’s seat to make a deep run toward the January 19, 2026, national championship in Miami.
The Top Contenders
As of now, Ohio State and Penn State sit atop the board at +600, narrowly edging out SEC powerhouses Georgia (+650) and Oregon (+650). Texas, despite early-season struggles at quarterback and a loss to Ohio State in the season opener, comes in fifth at +750, followed by LSU (+1000).
The first shakeup in brand-name power appears further down, where Alabama (+1600) and Miami (+1600) are sharing the seventh-best odds despite very different preseason expectations. Oklahoma (+2200) and Tennessee (+2800) cap off the group of double-digit ranked hopefuls with a realistic path forward.
Early Projected Bracket
Using the current odds for betting on the CFP National Championship and AP rankings, here is what a way-too-early 12-team playoff field could resemble if the season ended today:
1 – Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
2 – Penn State (Big Ten at-large)
3 – LSU (SEC champion)
4 – Miami (ACC champion)
5 – Georgia (SEC at-large)
6 – Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
7 – Texas (SEC at-large)
8 – Texas A&M (SEC at-large)
9 – Illinois (Big Ten at-large)
10 – Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
11 – Oklahoma (SEC at-large)
12 – South Florida (AAC champion)
Hypothetical First-Round Matchups
(8) Texas A&M vs. (9) Illinois – A clash between SEC firepower and Big Ten grit.
(5) Georgia vs. (12) USF – A playoff heavyweight vs. a CFP newcomer.
(6) Oregon vs. (11) Oklahoma – A duel of offensive powers now battling in the expanded Big Ten and SEC.
(7) Texas vs. (10) Texas Tech – A Red River State epic moved onto the playoff stage.
The opening round of the College Football Playoffs begins December 19th. The winners of those contests would then advance to neutral-site quarterfinals against the top four.
Conference Picture
Big Ten: Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon dominate the conference title odds, making the league look like the clear favorite to land multiple playoff spots.
SEC: Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Alabama carry the conference’s playoff push, though Texas A&M is quietly lurking with top-10 odds.
ACC: Miami is the favorite (+175) in a much thinner field, holding off Georgia Tech and Florida State.
Big 12: Texas Tech (+250) is favored to win the league, with Utah right on its heels.
The Group of Five: South Florida has made an unexpected appearance in the latest CFP projections, thanks to their early-season win against their cross-state rival, the Florida Gators of the SEC. They can secure the fifth automatic qualifier for conference champions if they can win the AAC and finish the season with one or fewer losses. What hurts USF is its embarrassing loss to Miami last weekend. Boise State (-120) leads in the Mountain West, Tulane (+200) edges USF in the AAC, and Liberty (+425) is a sleeper in Conference USA.
Early Takeaways
The early odds reflect a potential shift from the Alabama-Georgia duopoly, with Ohio State and Penn State at the forefront and Oregon rising in the Big Ten. The expanded playoff ensures programs like Texas Tech, USC, and Illinois have clearer pathways to contention than ever before.
One thing is certain: if these odds hold, the 2025-26 season is shaping up to be one of the most balanced and unpredictable playoff races in the new format.
Bovada Sportsbook | Tampa Bay Times
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