Tonight at 7:30 PM, Miami and Ohio State will meet in the Cotton Bowl, playing for a chance to reach the CFP semifinals. Online college football sportsbooks place the Canes as a 9.5-point underdog, suggesting that the Buckeyes should easily get the better of them in Texas this evening.
Miami (#10) vs. Ohio State (#2)
- Point Spread: Miami +9.5 (-105), Ohio State -9.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Miami +285, Ohio State -370
- Over: 40.5 (-115)
- Under: 40.5 (-105)
On paper, Ohio State brings depth, five-star talent, and the weight of national expectation. But games aren’t decided on paper, and on the field today, the Miami Hurricanes have real, tangible reasons to believe they can beat the Buckeyes.
Miami is poised to pull off a statement win over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, powered by a balanced offense, a disruptive defense, and several key matchups that tilt subtly toward the Hurricanes.
While the Buckeyes enter as the blue-blood heavyweight, Miami’s mix of speed, physicality, and schematic flexibility gives the Hurricanes a realistic path to victory under the primetime lights in Arlington.
Offensively, Miami’s game plan starts with the ground attack. Running back Mark Fletcher Jr., once an Ohio State commit before flipping to the Hurricanes, brings a blend of size and burst that can stress the Buckeyes’ front seven between the tackles and on off-tackle zone schemes.
If Fletcher establishes rhythm early, Miami can control tempo, keep Ohio State’s offense on the sideline, and force the Buckeyes to creep safeties closer to the line of scrimmage. That adjustment is precisely what opens up the rest of the field for the Hurricanes’ passing game.
At quarterback, Carson Beck brings Miami veteran composure and pocket timing, a crucial counter to Ohio State’s aggressive pass rush. Beck’s strength lies in working the intermediate zones, digs, crossers, and deep outs, routes that can challenge Ohio State’s linebackers and safeties if they are overcommitted to stopping Fletcher.
In key third-down situations, Beck’s ability to diagnose coverage and get the ball out quickly will help neutralize pressure and keep drives alive.
Miami’s receiving corps provides the complementary punch. Wideout Malachi Toney offers a dynamic target who can win from the slot or outside, threatening Ohio State on option routes, bubbles, and vertical shots down the seam.
When Toney draws bracket coverage, it opens opportunities for secondary receivers to attack one-on-one matchups on the perimeter, especially against Buckeye corners who can be vulnerable to double moves and back-shoulder throws.
In the red zone, Miami’s route combinations and play-action concepts off Fletcher’s runs can create mismatches against linebackers in coverage.
Defensively, the Hurricanes’ primary task is containing Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and running back Bo Jackson, the centerpiece duo of the Buckeye attack.
Sayin is a highly touted passer with the arm talent to punish blown coverages, but Miami’s defensive front has the speed and depth to collapse the pocket and force him off his spot.
By generating pressure with four rushers and occasionally adding simulated pressures from linebackers, Miami can disrupt Sayin’s timing without overexposing its secondary in man coverage.
Stopping Jackson on early downs is equally essential. Ohio State’s offense is at its best when Jackson is churning out chunk runs and setting up manageable second and third downs.
If Miami’s front seven wins at the line of scrimmage, holding Jackson to short gains and rallying to the ball on outside zone and counter, Ohio State will be pushed into longer passing situations, where the Hurricanes can unleash more exotic pressures and disguised coverages.
Special teams and intangibles also favor a potential Miami surge. A strong punting game, clean coverage units, and a reliable kicking operation can tilt field position and force Ohio State to drive long fields repeatedly.
Add in Miami’s underdog mentality and the emotional edge of chasing revenge for past heartbreaks against the Buckeyes, and the Hurricanes enter the Cotton Bowl with both a tactical and psychological framework to spring the upset.
