The Octagon returns to Las Vegas this Saturday for UFC 324, a landmark event that marks the promotion’s first major card of 2026 and the debut of its high-profile partnership with Paramount+.
Topping the marquee is a legacy-defining clash for the interim lightweight title between the ever-violent veteran Justin Gaethje and the sport’s fastest-rising superstar, Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett.
In the co-main event, former bantamweight king Sean O’Malley looks to stop a rare skid against the heavy-handed Song Yadong in a high-stakes contender bout.
Below, we take a look at the odds that UFC betting sites are offering for both main events.
Sean O’Malley vs. Yadong Song Betting Line
Moneyline:
- Sean O’Malley: -210
- Yadong Song: +175
Over/Under (Rounds):
- Over 2.5: -260
- Under 2.5: +190
The co-main event between Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong is a high-stakes crossroads for the bantamweight elite. O’Malley (18-3) enters as a -210 favorite, desperate to snap a two-fight skid against Merab Dvalishvili.
O’Malley holds a significant 5-inch reach advantage and will look to use his signature “Matrix” movement and switch-hitting to keep the fight at range.
Song (22-8-1) is coming off a massive win over Henry Cejudo. He thrives on explosive forward pressure and heavy hands. To win, he must bridge the distance and force O’Malley into a “dirty” pocket fight or utilize his underrated wrestling.
Keys to Victory:
O’Malley needs to reclaim his “sniper” status by timing counters as Song enters. Conversely, Song’s path to an upset lies in punishing O’Malley’s body and testing his durability in the clinch.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Betting Line
Spread:
- Gaethje -9.5 (-150)
- Pimblett +9.5 (+115)
Moneyline:
- Gaethje: -230
- Pimblett: +190
Over/Under (Rounds):
- Over 2.5: -110
- Under 2.5: -120
Headlining UFC 324 is an interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.
Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett is riding a 9-fight win streak and is a significant -235 favorite. After finishing Michael Chandler and Bobby Green, he has silenced critics of his “easy” path.
Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje returns as a +190 underdog. At 37, Gaethje remains the division’s most violent striker, boasting a massive 6.59 significant strikes landed per minute. He needs his elite 68% takedown defense to hold up to keep this a standing war.
Keys to Victory:
Gaethje’s path is simple: punish Pimblett’s tendency to leave his chin exposed and chop down his lead leg. Pimblett, however, thrives in chaos; if he can weather the initial “storm” and drag Gaethje into a scramble, his superior BJJ could end the night via submission.
How Does A Point Spread Bet On A UFC Fight Work?
A point spread bet in the realm of a UFC match is a wager on how wide a fighter wins (or how close an underdog keeps it), usually based on the judges’ scorecards, with finishes automatically covering the spread for the winner.
The favorite will usually feature a negative spread (for example, -3.5), meaning they must win decisively enough on the scorecards or by finish.
The underdog gets a positive spread (for example, +3.5), meaning they can either win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread, and your bet still wins.
When the fight ends in a decision, you add up all three judges’ scores for each fighter, then find the point difference.
Example (three-round fight):
- Judge totals: 30–27, 30–27, 29–28 → favorite has 89 points, underdog 82 → +7 point margin.
- If you bet the favorite at -3.5, this wins because they “covered” by more than 3.5 points.
- If you bet the underdog at +3.5, you would lose because they lost by more than 3.5 points.
If the sportsbook uses the common rule “if a fighter wins inside the distance, the point spread on that fighter is a winning bet”, then:
- Any KO/TKO/submission/inside-the-distance win by your fighter automatically covers their spread, regardless of what the scorecards would have been.
- The losing fighter’s spread bet loses, even if they were the underdog with a big + spread.
Why Use A Spread?
If a fighter wins by knockout or technical knockout, the point spread on that fighter is graded as a winning bet. If the fight goes to a decision, the point spread applies to the judges’ total scorecards.
Spreads can make huge favorites more playable: instead of laying a high price on a moneyline, you take them -X.X points at better odds if you think they dominate.
They also give you a way to back an underdog to “keep it close,” even if you don’t think they actually win the fight.
Bovada Sportsbook | UFC 324 Event Page
