As we approach the 98th Academy Awards, the narrative seems dominated by Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. These titans have locked up many of the “frontrunner” slots in the odds for betting on the 2026 Oscars, creating a market where the favorites are priced so high that there is little room for profit.
However, savvy bettors know that the Academy loves a late-season surge or a sentimental narrative. While the odds-on favorites are safe, the real value lies in the films and performers with enough critical momentum or technical prowess to pull off a stunning upset. Here are five underdogs worth your consideration.
Timothée Chalamet – Best Actor (Marty Supreme)
- Odds: +140
While Michael B. Jordan is the current favorite for his transformative role in Sinners, entertainment sportsbooks have Timothée Chalamet breathing down his neck at +140. In Marty Supreme, Chalamet takes on a stylized, charismatic role that serves as a massive departure from his previous work.
The Safdie brothers’ direction often draws career-best, high-energy performances from their leads, and the “overdue” narrative for Chalamet is starting to crystallize. If the industry decides Sinners is more of a technical achievement than an acting showcase, Chalamet is the immediate beneficiary.
Chalamet had initially led the odds to win Best Actor, but he has slipped behind Jordan following negative comments regarding the genres of opera and ballet. Gamblers can secure a 1.4-to-1 win if placing a bet now.
F1 – Best Sound
- Odds: +600
Currently, the racing epic F1 sits at +600, trailing significantly behind the heavy favorite. However, the Best Sound category has historically rewarded films that deliver an immersive, visceral auditory experience.
F1 is designed to be a sonic assault on the senses, utilizing cutting-edge recording techniques to place the audience inside the cockpit. At +600, this is perhaps the best value on the board; the Academy rarely ignores a film that defines the “theatrical experience” through sound.
Stellan Skarsgård – Best Supporting Actor (Sentimental Value)
- Odds: +400
Sean Penn is the formidable frontrunner here, but Stellan Skarsgård at +400 represents a classic “prestige” upset. Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value has been a critical darling on the festival circuit, and Skarsgård’s performance is being hailed as a subtle, heartbreaking masterclass.
The Supporting Actor category frequently leans toward veteran actors in international or independent features who haven’t yet received their “victory lap” Oscar. If Penn’s performance is seen as too aggressive, Skarsgård’s understated brilliance is the logical alternative.
Wunmi Mosaku – Best Supporting Actress (Sinners)
- Odds: +225
The Supporting Actress race is a dead heat between Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku at +225 is the “spoiler” bet to watch. Sinners is expected to have a massive night across the technical and directing categories.
Often, a “sweep” mentality carries the supporting cast along with it. Mosaku provides the emotional heartbeat of Coogler’s supernatural thriller, and if Sinners starts winning early in the night (Casting, Score), expect her momentum to carry her straight to the podium.
Brazil, “The Secret Agent” – Best International Feature
- Odds: +135
Norway’s Sentimental Value is the heavy favorite at -250, but Brazil’s The Secret Agent is within striking distance at +135. The film has benefited from a massive global marketing push and carries a political weight that often resonates deeply with the Academy’s international voting branch.
Unlike the favorite, which is a contemporary dramedy, The Secret Agent is a sweeping, historical thriller. Historically, the Academy favors high-stakes historical narratives in this category, making the narrow gap in odds look like a prime opportunity for bettors.
Final Note About Shopping The Oscars Odds
Most of the sites that are featured in our sportsbook reviews have created Oscars futures for this Sunday. We advise shopping around to find the best bang for the buck.
What is also important is the maximum bets allowed. One book may offer odds that pay out at a better ratio, but the moneymaking potential could be limited by low bet caps.
For more assistance in this endeavor, read our SportsBetting.Legal guide to line shopping for the best payouts.
Sources: Variety, People, Bovada Sportsbook
