Politics

October Democratic debate prop bets: Odds on China, Ukraine, Trump impeachment mentions and more

by
Dave Bradstock
October 15, 2019

When the 2020 Presidential Election is held next November, anything could happen, especially in a swing state.

And tonight, Ohio—one of the most crucial swing states to win—plays host to the fourth Democratic debate.

Held just north of Columbus at Otterbein University in Westerville, the October 15 debate will be at 8 pm ET. Hosted by CNN and The New York Times, Anderson Cooper, Erin Burnett, and Marc Lacey will moderate. The debate can be watched on CNN, CNN International, and CNN en Español.

Tonight’s debate will feature 12 presidential hopefuls on one stage. Although they did not qualify for the third debate, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and billionaire activist Tom Steyer were able to reach the Democratic National Committee thresholds for this debate.

Gabbard and Steyer will join the ten candidates that qualified for the September debate in Houston: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Yang, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, Julián Castro, and Amy Klobuchar.

As is the tradition for political betting sites heading into the debates, BetOnline has released odds for several political proposition bets covering everything from talking points, to China, to Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

Fourth Democratic Debate Prop Bets

@BetOnline

One of the most important prop bets for any debate is which topic will receive the most talking time during the event.

According to oddsmakers, health care is projected to earn the most debate time tonight at +200 odds. However, despite only having +500 odds, foreign policy could come up often during the debate due to the protests in China and President Trump’s controversial decision to withdraw troops from Northern Syria.

Which topic will receive the most debate time?

Health care +200
Gun control +325
Immigration +350
Economy +400
Foreign policy +500
Climate change +800
Civil rights +1000

When it comes to who will get the most individual speaking time tonight, Biden and Warren are favorite with +200 odds.

As he will be making his debate premiere tonight, Steyer could look to talk frequently despite his odds only being +1200.

Who will receive the most speaking time during the debate?

Joe Biden +200
Elizabeth Warren +200
Bernie Sanders +400
Beto O’Rourke +600
Pete Buttigieg +600
Kamala Harris +600
Andrew Yang +800
Cory Booker +1200
Julián Castro +1200
Tulsi Gabbard +1200
Tom Steyer +1200
Amy Klobuchar +1600

While the debate stage is important, the Twittersphere could be the biggest platform during the 2020 election. Similar to the talk-time odds, Biden and Warren are projected to be the most tweeted about candidates tonight at +200.

Yang is close by with +500 odds, likely due to his strong #YangGang online presence.

Who will be tweeted about the most during the debate?

Joe Biden +200
Elizabeth Warren +200
Andrew Yang +500
Pete Buttigieg +600
Tulsi Gabbard +600
Bernie Sanders +700
Kamala Harris +900
Beto O’Rourke +900
Tom Steyer +1000
Julián Castro +1000
Cory Booker +1000
Amy Klobuchar +1600

As the Democrats debating tonight are all vying for a chance to defeat Trump in the upcoming presidential election, it is likely that the incumbent’s current controversy may come up.

After a whistleblower filed a complaint regarding a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, followed by Trump’s public request asking China to investigate the Bidens, an impeachment inquiry was launched.

Due to the inquiry, “impeach,” “China,” and “Ukraine” are all bound to come up throughout the night.

The impeachment over/under is set at 24.5 times with -120 odds on both.

How many times will “impeach” be said?

Over 24.5 times -120
Under 24.5 times -120

Ukraine’s over/under is 19.5 times, also with -120 odds for each option.

How many times will “Ukraine” be said?

Over 19.5 times -120
Under 19.5 times -120

China’s total is much higher, due to the impeachment inquiry and the current Hong Kong-China protests. Expect to hear China mentioned often, especially with an over/under at 49.5 times.

How many times will “China” be said?

Over 49.5 times -120
Under 49.5 times -120

Speaking of speaking, there are quite a few prop bets centered on what the candidates might say tonight.

Another speech over/under is how many times “billionaire” will be said by any candidate. This keyword has threefold importance.

First, Trump is a billionaire and, as Democratic Enemy #1, it could be brought up against him. Second, Steyer is a billionaire and has been accused of buying his way into the fourth debate.

Finally, as Democrats usually target middle- and lower-class communities, exposing billionaires for their exploitations is common during the debates.

The billionaire over/under is 9.5 times with -120 odds for both.

How many times will “billionaire” be said?

Over 9.5 times -120
Under 9.5 times -120

Particularly a favorite key phrase of Trump, “fake news” is favored to not appear tonight during the debate at -150 odds.

Will “fake news” be said by any candidate?

Yes +110
No -150

Hunter Biden, on the other hand, is expected to be mentioned. The son of Joe Biden, Hunter is the center of Trump’s corruption focus on the family. At -200 odds, questions about Hunter are likely for his father on stage.

Will “Hunter Biden” be said by any candidate?

Yes -200
No +150

Although the National Basketball Association is tangled in a power struggle with China following tweets made by Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, the league is projected to be left out of the Democratic debate with -150 odds.

Will “NBA” be said by any candidate?

Yes +110
No -150

There are also a couple of prop bets that focus on an individual candidate’s word usage.

Warren is expected to mention Facebook tonight at -250 odds, likely due to FB CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s comments hinting legal action against Warren if she were to try to break up the social media giant.

Will Warren say “Facebook”?

Yes -250
No +170

Warren is also projected to mention The Rock at -200 odds after Dwayne Johnson called the Democratic frontrunner a “baller.”

Will Warren say “The Rock”?

Yes -200
No +150

As President Barack Obama’s Vice President between 2008 and 2016, Biden was an important player in some of the country’s biggest moves during those eight years.

However, Biden has been criticized multiple times because of his overuse of Obama’s name in his campaign. Tonight, the Obamameter is set at 3.5 total Obama mentions by Biden.

How many times will Biden say “Obama”?

Over 3.5 times -120
Under 3.5 times -120

Biden frequently uses his time under Obama as one of his platforms, but Yang has a different kicker: his Freedom Dividend.

A universal basic income totaling $1,000 per month, Yang’s campaign is built on the idea. Nevertheless, the over/under for “thousand dollars” is only set at 1.5 total times.

How many times will Yang say “thousand dollars”?

Over 1.5 times -120
Under 1.5 times -120

Last month during the third debate, Yang announced he would be giving away his Freedom Dividend to 10 families as a year-long pilot program.

For the fourth debate tonight, Yang is favored to do another giveaway at -150 odds.

Will Yang announce another giveaway?

Yes -150
No +110

Following his recent heart attack and subsequent surgery, many are wondering if Sanders is just too old to continue running for president.

Even if Sanders does decide to withdraw from the race, is it not expected to happen tonight on the debate stage. At -10000 odds, Sander’s continuation is heavily favored.

Will Sanders withdraw his candidacy on stage?

Yes +2500
No -10000

Another unlikely occurrence is a Democratic candidate endorsing an opponent on stage tonight. Odds say that it’s a longshot at -1000 chances.

Will any candidate endorse another for President?

Yes +500
No -1000

Before the last debate in September, the DNC asked the candidates to stop cursing during the debates. It is likely that request carries over to the debate tonight as the chances of a candidate getting bleeped at -300.

Will any candidate say a curse word or be bleeped?

Yes +200
No -300

The prop bets also include a speech wager independent of the candidates. BetOnline predicts that a protester will interrupt this debate at -200 odds. Protests momentarily halted the September debate, and with the current Hong Kong protests, it is likely to carry over.

Will the debate be interrupted by a protester?

Yes -200
No +150

The rest of the prop bets pertain to The Hill-HarrisX Daily Poll percentages for Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, and Yang on Friday, October 18.

The candidates current polling percentages are as follows: