This Thursday and Friday, the College Football Playoff moves to the semifinals as four powerhouses descend on Glendale and Atlanta with a trip to the National Championship on the line.
After a chaotic quarterfinal round that saw reigning champion Ohio State fall and Ole Miss stun Georgia in a Sugar Bowl classic, the field is down to an intriguing mix of blue-bloods and new-era juggernauts.
On one side, we have a defensive-minded Miami squad looking to reclaim its “U” glory against an explosive Ole Miss team thriving under postseason pressure. On the other is a high-stakes Big Ten rematch between Oregon and the undefeated, top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers, led by Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.
From trench warfare in the desert to a projected NFL quarterback duel in the Peach State, here is everything you need to know about betting on the CFP.
January 8, 2026 – 7:30 PM
Miami (#10) vs. Mississippi (#6)
- Spread: Miami -3.5 (-105) | Mississippi +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Miami -175 | Mississippi +150
- Total (O/U): Over 52.0 (-105) | Under 52.0 (-115)
In a historic postseason matchup, #10 Miami and #6 Ole Miss are set to collide in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl (January 8, 2026). Both programs enter this stage after stunning quarterfinal upsets: Miami dismantled defending champion Ohio State 24–14, while Ole Miss knocked off #3 Georgia 39–34 in a Sugar Bowl thriller.
The Matchup Breakdown
Miami’s Trench Dominance: The Hurricanes have found their identity late in the season, leaning on a violent defensive front led by Reuben Bain. Their ability to pressure the pocket without blitzing has been the catalyst for their six-game winning streak.
The Rebel Attack: Ole Miss features an explosive, quick-trigger offense led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels’ strategy centers on an RPO-heavy system that gets the ball out in under two seconds, specifically designed to neutralize aggressive pass rushes like Miami’s.
Quarterback Play: Carson Beck has been “flawless” during Miami’s playoff run, providing a steady hand for an offense that has become ultra-careful with the football.
Prediction: NCAAF sportsbooks have Miami as a 3.5-point favorite. While Ole Miss has the speed to start fast, analysts expect the sustained “pounding” of Miami’s offensive line to wear down the Rebels by the fourth quarter.
January 9, 2026 – 7:30 PM
Oregon (#5) vs. Indiana (#1)
- Spread: Oregon +4.0 (-115) | Indiana -4.0 (-105)
- Moneyline: Oregon +160 | Indiana -185
- Total (O/U): Over 47.0 (-105) | Under 47.0 (-115)
In a high-stakes Big Ten rematch, #1 Indiana and #5 Oregon will face off in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Peach Bowl (January 9, 2026). This is the second meeting between the powerhouses this season; the Hoosiers previously handed the Ducks their only conference loss in a 30–20 victory at Autzen Stadium.
Keys to the Rematch
The Heisman Factor: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the program’s first-ever Heisman winner, enters following a flawless Rose Bowl performance where he threw more touchdowns than incompletions.
The Quarterback Duel: This game features a “Pro Day” atmosphere, as Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore are projected as the top two picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. Moore, who struggled with turnovers in the first meeting, is looking for redemption after a dominant 23–0 quarterfinal shutout of Texas Tech.
Defensive Trenches: Indiana’s pass rush sacked Moore six times in October. For Oregon to flip the script, their offensive line must withstand an Indiana unit that ranks #1 nationally in EPA per play.
Prediction: Indiana is a 4-point favorite. While Oregon’s defense is playing its best football of the year, the Hoosiers’ balanced “ground-and-pound” attack and Mendoza’s efficiency make them the team to beat.
Bovada Sportsbook | Yahoo! Sports
