Politics

Biden, Harris, Warren listed as three-way 2020 Democratic favorites following the debate

by
Jacob Jennings
August 1, 2019

This is probably not the three-way Biden had in mind when he announced his 2020 presidential campaign.

Nevertheless, following last night’s second Democratic primary debate, oddsmakers at BetOnline now list Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren in a three-way tie as co-favorites to win the party’s nomination.

All three candidates received +300 odds, and when converted to an implied probability, we see that Biden, Harris, and Warren have each been given a 25% chance to win the 2020 Democratic nomination.

At a combined 75% — it’s clear the oddsmakers now heavily favor one of these three candidates to face President Donald Trump next year.

Here’s the full list of 2020 Democratic odds that released after the debate:

2020 Democratic nomination odds

@BetOnline

Elizabeth Warren +300
Joe Biden +300
Kamala Harris +300
Bernie Sanders +750
Pete Buttigieg +800
Andrew Yang +1200
Tulsi Gabbard +2000
Beto ORourke +3300
Cory Booker +5000
Amy Klobuchar +6600
Julian Castro +6600
Bill de Blasio +10000
Jay Inslee +10000
John Hickenlooper +10000
Kirsten Gillibrand +10000
Michael Bennett +10000
Seth Moulton +10000

Winners and losers, according to the odds

After looking at who the oddsmakers favored going into the second Democratic debate two nights ago, here are the biggest winners and losers on the board after all was said and done.

Keep these two things in mind when looking at the before, after, and change over time with the latest odds:

These changes are based on who the public bet money on over the past two nights.
The % chance increases the closer you get to +100 (EVEN or 50% chance).

Winners

Biden and Warren saw the biggest % change in their odds while Gabbard was the biggest mover on the board. Harris and Yang saw no change but hung on to their positions.

Elizabeth Warren +350 (22.22%) > +300 (25%) = +2.78%
Joe Biden +350 (22.22%) > +300 (25%) = +2.78%
Tulsi Gabbard +3300 (2.94%) > +2000 (4.76%) = +1.82%
Kamala Harris +300 (25%) > +300 (25%) = 0
Andrew Yang +1200 (7.69%) > +1200 (7.69%) = 0

Losers

Sanders was by far the biggest loser, according to the political betting markets following the debates and now is nearly in the same position as Buttigieg, who also took a hit. O’Rourke continues to slide, while Booker, Klobuchar, and Castro lost roughly a fifth to a quarter of their previous value on the board.

Bernie Sanders +450 (18.18%) > +750 (11.76%) = -6.42%
Pete Buttigieg +700 (12.50%) > +800 (11.11%) = -1.39%
Beto O’Rourke +2500 (3.85%) > +3300 (2.94%) = -0.94
Cory Booker +4000 (2.44%) > +5000 (1.96%) = -0.48
Amy Klobuchar +5000 (1.96%) > +6600 (1.49%) = -0.47
Julian Castro +5000 (1.96%) > +6600 (1.49%) = -0.47

2020 Presidential Election odds

Trump saw no change after the Democratic debates and maintains the top spot at -110 odds, which gives him a 52.38% chance to win re-election next year.

The three-way tie is valued at +700 odds each — or a 12.50% chance — when Trump is factored into the equation. However, Gabbard was a huge mover on the board after last night, going from +6600, a 1.49% chance, to +3300, a 2.94% chance.

Here are the current odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election for each of the candidates following the second debate, including a comparison of what they were before the past two nights (the “before odds” will be indicated in parentheses).

@BetOnline