Heavy favorites, contrasting styles, emotional home crowds, and limited historical data all collide in one weekend, making the opening round of the CFP both dangerous and profitable for those who know what to look for.
Before placing a bet on the CFP, it’s worth understanding why these games play differently from bowls or championship matchups, and how to spot value when the margin for error is at its thinnest.
Unlike later rounds, the first round often features mismatched résumés rather than evenly matched talent, which can inflate spreads and totals.
Motivation, travel, weather, and coaching tendencies matter more than power ratings alone. Bettors who dig into these edges can find angles the broader market is slow to price in.
Alabama (#9) vs Oklahoma (#8)
The Crimson Tide and the Sooners meet in a near pick’em matchup, with the point spread favoring Oklahoma by one. Both teams are priced closely on the moneyline, hinting at an evenly matched contest.
- Spread: Alabama +1.0 (-110) | Oklahoma -1.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Alabama -105 | Oklahoma -115
- Total: O40.0 (-110) | U40.0 (-110)
- 12/19/25 – 8:00 PM
The total of 40 suggests a defensive battle, where efficiency and turnovers could decide the outcome in this intriguing late-season matchup.
Our Prediction: Alabama Wins And Covers
Miami (#10) vs Texas A&M (#7)
Texas A&M enters as a 3.5-point favorite over Miami at college football sportsbooks. The Aggies’ stronger defense and home advantage influence the line, while the total of 48.5 points suggests balanced scoring potential.
- Spread: Miami +3.5 (-110) | Texas A&M -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +140 | Texas A&M -165
- Total: O48.5 (-110) | U48.5 (-110)
- 12/20/25 – 12:00 PM
Miami’s underdog value appeals to bettors expecting an explosive offense to keep the game tight.
Our Prediction: The Aggies Win And Cover
Tulane (#11) vs Mississippi (#6)
Ole Miss is a heavy 17-point favorite over the Green Wave, reflecting a clear talent gap between the SEC’s Rebels and Tulane.
- Spread: Tulane +17.0 (-110) | Mississippi -17.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tulane +575 | Mississippi -900
- Total: O57.0 (-110) | U57.0 (-110)
- 12/20/25 – 3:30 PM
The 57-point total signals expectations for a high-scoring game, with the Rebels’ explosive offense likely dictating tempo while Tulane looks to capitalize on big-play opportunities.
Our Prediction: The Rebels Win, The Green Wave Covers
James Madison (#12) vs Oregon (#5)
The Ducks enter as a dominant 21-point favorite over the JMU Bulldogs, underscoring Oregon’s superior talent. The 47.5-point total suggests moderate scoring, driven by Oregon’s potent offense.
- Spread: James Madison +21.0 (-110) | Oregon -21.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: James Madison +1000 | Oregon -2200
- Total: O47.5 (-110) | U47.5 (-110)
- 12/20/25 – 7:30 PM
James Madison will need defensive discipline and big plays to stay competitive against the high-powered Big Ten contender.
Our Prediction: Oregon Wins And Covers
Betting Odds: Bovada Sportsbook (Bovada Review) | Fox Sports
