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Out of Luck: The Colts odds plummet across the board after Andrew Luck’s retirement

Andrew Luck retires

They say it’s better to be lucky than good—but the Indianapolis Colts would probably like to have Luck and be good.

Over the weekend, Colts QB Andrew Luck shocked the National Football League with news that he was retiring immediately citing repeated injuries throughout his career. The former No.1 overall pick out of Stanford is only 29 years old.

“We wish Andrew only the best and we thank him for all his efforts that he’s done as a Colt,” Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay said Saturday night.

The team supports Luck and his decision, but this is still a big blow to their betting odds across the board.

AFC South division odds comparison

Before Luck’s retirement, Bovada gave the Colts -105 odds to win the AFC South. Now, BetOnline gives them the worst chances in the division at +450. The Texans are now the division favorite, going from +275 to +185 odds.

AFC South Team Pre-Luck retirement Post-Luck retirement
Houston Texans +275 +185
Jacksonville Jaguars +400 +200
Tennessee Titans +650 +300
Indianapolis Colts -105 +450


Also taking a hit was the Colts over/under win total, which was set at 10 games with +105 odds on the over, the most in the AFC South.

The outlook is much less favorable now. According to BetOnline, the Colts’ over/under is now set at 7 wins. The Houston Texans now have the highest over/under with 8.5 wins and the Colts have dropped to the fewest total wins.

Updated AFC South total wins

  • Houston Texans O/U 8.5 wins
  • Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 7.5 wins
  • Tennessee Titans O/U 7.5 wins
  • Indianapolis Colts O/U 7 wins

Losing Luck also ends any major Super Bowl aspirations that the team may have had. The Colts are now in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of Super Bowl LIV odds at +5000. Pre-retirement, their odds were +1600. The NFL betting odds for the Colts have literally plummeted.

Division rivals Jacksonville (+2500) and Houston (+2000) have better chances to win the Super Bowl while Tennessee shares +5000 odds with the Colts.

Odds to win Super Bowl LIV

  • New England Patriots +650
  • Kansas City Chiefs +800
  • New Orleans Saints +900
  • Chicago Bears +1200
  • Los Angeles Rams +1200
  • Philadelphia Eagles +1200
  • Cleveland Browns +1400
  • Los Angeles Chargers +1400
  • Green Bay Packers +1600
  • Dallas Cowboys +2000
  • Houston Texans +2000
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +2000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
  • Minnesota Vikings +2500
  • Atlanta Falcons +2800
  • San Francisco 49ers +2800
  • Carolina Panthers +3300
  • Seattle Seahawks +3300
  • Baltimore Ravens +4000
  • Indianapolis Colts +5000
  • Oakland Raiders +5000
  • Tennessee Titans +5000
  • Buffalo Bills +6600
  • Denver Broncos +6600
  • New York Jets +6600
  • Detroit Lions +8000
  • New York Giants +8000
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8000
  • Arizona Cardinals +10000
  • Cincinnati Bengals +15000
  • Miami Dolphins +15000
  • Washington Redskins +15000

Luck is giving up more than team success with his retirement. Two weeks ago, BetOnline gave Luck the third-best chances, +1200 odds, to win the NFL MVP. Only Patrick Mahomes (+600) of the Kansas City Chiefs and Carson Wentz (+900) of the Philadelphia Eagles had better odds.

Since Luck’s announcement, there’s only been a slight shift in odd for the top 10 MVP hopefuls.

Odds to win 2019 NFL MVP

  • Patrick Mahomes +500
  • Carson Wentz +900
  • Aaron Rodgers +1200
  • Baker Mayfield +1200
  • Drew Brees +1400
  • Tom Brady +1400
  • Philip Rivers +2000
  • Ben Roethlisberger +2500
  • Cam Newton +2500
  • Deshaun Watson +2500

Andrew Luck retirement prop bets

Despite his retirement, many players have returned after a season or two away from the game. Bovada is taking action on whether Luck will play professional football again within the next two years, whether in the NFL or XFL. Right now, the odds favor “neither” at -4000 odds

Will Andrew Luck play in the NFL or XFL in the next two years?

  • NFL +500
  • XFL +1500
  • Neither -4000

This isn’t the only prop bet for Luck. BetOnline is also giving odds on similar scenarios, including Luck’s playing possibilities in 2019 and 2020. Neither are favorable at -1500 and -1000 odds, respectively.

Will Andrew Luck play in a game in the 2019 Regular Season?

  • Yes +700
  • No -1500

Will Andrew Luck play in a game in the 2020 Regular Season?

  • Yes +500
  • No -1000

Jacoby Brissett Total Starts 2019 Regular Season?

  • Over/under 10.5 starts

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