The 2026 NFL offseason has officially entered “chaos mode,” fueled by a record-shattering $301.2 million salary cap and a draft class that scouts describe as historically thin. Aside from a few blue-chip prospects like Fernando Mendoza, the cupboard is bare, forcing quarterback-needy franchises to look toward established veterans and high-upside reclamation projects.
This scarcity has ignited a massive betting market, with NFL sportsbooks shifting lines daily as rumors swirl from the combine. From Super Bowl champions looking for a bridge to former top-five picks seeking a fresh start, the “castoff” quarterback market has become the primary storyline of the new league year.
Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson: Trade Destination
- Minnesota Vikings (+250)
- Atlanta Falcons (+400)
- LA Rams (+500)
- Miami Dolphins (+600)
- New York Jets (+600)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+600)
- New York Giants (+1000)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+1400)
- New Orleans Saints (+1800)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+2200)
- Bets void if remaining with the Colts
The Indianapolis Colts are at a crossroads with Anthony Richardson, and the betting markets reflect a growing belief that a trade is imminent. The Minnesota Vikings (+250) have emerged as the clear favorites; with J.J. McCarthy’s development remains a work in progress, coach Kevin O’Connell is reportedly intrigued by Richardson’s elite physical tools.
The Atlanta Falcons (+400) and LA Rams (+500) follow closely, both possessing the offensive infrastructure to maximize a dual-threat weapon. Interestingly, the Miami Dolphins (+600) and New York Jets (+600) are looming as wildcards, suggesting that even teams with established names are considering a high-upside pivot if the price is right.
Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins: 2026-27 Season Opener
- Minnesota Vikings (+240)
- New York Jets (+300)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+400)
- Miami Dolphins (+525)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+600)
- Tennessee Titans (+650)
- Carolina Panthers (+700)
- Arizona Cardinals (+900)
Despite being 37, Kirk Cousins remains the gold standard for “stability” on the open market. The Minnesota Vikings (+240) are the favorites for a sentimental reunion, as O’Connell’s familiarity with Cousins provides a safe floor for a team with playoff aspirations.
However, the New York Jets (+300) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+400) are aggressive suitors; both rosters are “win-now” and desperately need a veteran who can simply distribute the ball to their playmakers. With the Miami Dolphins (+525) also in the mix, Cousins’ market proves that in an uncertain era, accuracy and veteran leadership still command a premium price.
Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray Odds For Next Team
- Minnesota Vikings (+150)
- New York Jets (+400)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+700)
- Miami Dolphins (+900)
- Atlanta Falcons (+900)
- Indianapolis Colts (+900)
- New York Giants (+1100)
- New Orleans Saints (+1400)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+2500)
Kyler Murray is perhaps the most polarizing figure in this cycle, with the Minnesota Vikings (+150) leading the odds to land his services. After a tumultuous end in Arizona, a move to the Twin Cities would pair Murray with Justin Jefferson, potentially creating the most explosive duo in the NFC. The New York Jets (+400) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+700) represent the other likely destinations for a quarterback who can still win games with his legs.
While odds for betting on the Miami Dolphins (+900) and Atlanta Falcons (+900) are listed, the consensus among sharps is that Murray is looking for a system that explicitly highlights his playmaking ability outside the pocket.
Kyler Murray: Return to MLB in 2026-27
- Yes (+600)
- No (-1200)
The most unique prop on the board involves Kyler Murray’s multi-sport history. The odds for a Return to MLB (+600) remain a long shot compared to him staying in the NFL (-1200).
Despite the Oakland A’s publicly keeping the door open to a reunion, the NFL’s financial realities make a transition difficult. Most analysts believe the “Yes” at +600 is more of a safety valve for bettors in case Murray decides to walk away from a league that has become increasingly critical of his durability and leadership.
Geno Smith
Geno Smith Odds For Next Team
- Minnesota Vikings (+150)
- New York Jets (+400)
- Miami Dolphins (+400)
- Arizona Cardinals (+600)
- Atlanta Falcons (+800)
- Cleveland Browns (+800)
- New York Giants (+1000)
- Dallas Cowboys (+2200)
- Seattle Seahawks (+3300)
- Wagers void if staying with the Raiders
Geno Smith finds himself at the center of a “tier-one” veteran market after a difficult stint with the Raiders. The Minnesota Vikings (+150) are once again the favorites, looking for a “Darnold-style” reclamation project to compete with McCarthy. The New York Jets (+400) and Miami Dolphins (+400) are tied for second, as both teams are looking for affordable efficiency.
With the Arizona Cardinals (+600) and Atlanta Falcons (+800) in the hunt, Smith’s market suggests he is viewed as the ideal “1B” starter—someone who can start 17 games but won’t break the bank for a team also looking to draft a rookie.
Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa: Next Team
- New York Jets (+135)
- Minnesota Vikings (+400)
- Arizona Cardinals (+400)
- Atlanta Falcons (+800)
- Cleveland Browns (+1100)
- New York Giants (+1200)
- Dallas Cowboys (+1800)
- Wagers void if staying with the Dolphins
Finally, the Tua Tagovailoa sweepstakes have taken a dramatic turn, with the New York Jets (+135) emerging as the heavy favorites to land him. Following reports of a looming release with a post-June 1 designation in Miami, the Jets seem poised to offer Tua the fresh start he needs.
The Minnesota Vikings (+400) and Arizona Cardinals (+400) provide interesting alternatives; Arizona, in particular, would be a fascinating landing spot if they choose Tua as the successor to Murray. However, with the Atlanta Falcons (+800) and Cleveland Browns (+1100) trailing, all signs currently point to a “Broadway Tua” era in New Jersey.
