The contents of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which was passed by Congress earlier this month, have caused a divide between the president and former Department of Government Efficiency head Elon Musk.
The entire purpose of DOGE is to rid the federal government of unnecessary waste, and Musk feels that the new budget bill has negated all of his department’s efforts from earlier this year.
As a result, Musk has declared that he will create a new political party – the America Party. The goal of the party is to represent what Musk describes as the undecided 80% of Americans in the middle.
By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!
When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.
Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom. https://t.co/9K8AD04QQN
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 5, 2025
The Electability Of The America Party
The earliest opportunity for the America Party to make a significant impact is during the midterm election cycle in November 2026. In the US House, each seat is up for election every two years, so the party has a chance to produce up to 435 candidates in that chamber alone.
Will The ‘America Party’ Field 25+ House Candidates in 2026?
- Yes +500
Political betting sites believe that the number of actual candidates for the US House will be less than 25. However, since the Republican and Democratic split in the House is so narrow, the America Party could cause a ripple with as few as 10 electees.
Will The ‘America Party’ Win The 2028 Presidential Election?
- Yes +10000
There are also lines for an America Party 2028 presidential win or a Musk POTUS candidacy announcement in 2025, although neither are likely to occur according to the odds.
Will Elon Musk Announce A Presidential Run In 2025?
- Yes +800
Is Anyone Going To Join The America Party?
Before the party can spread any influence, there must be politicians who are members. The latest batch of political prop bets does not favor any currently elected US Senate or House members defecting to the America Party this year.
Will Any GOP House or Senate Member Join The ‘America Party’ In 2025?
- Yes +700
The following prop attempts to predict the first member to join by name, and places US House member Thomas Massie in the lead with even odds.
Who Will Be The First Politician To Join The America Party?
- Thomas Massie EVEN
- Rand Paul +300
- Lisa Murkowski +500
- Dean Phillips +600
- Brian Fitzpatrick +1600
- Cornel West +1600
- Marjorie Taylor Greene +2500
- Susan Collins +2500
Consequences Of The America Party
Now that this Musk-Trump feud appears to have legs, there’s sure to be fallout that comes from it. Since Trump holds most of the power in this scenario, oddsmakers are now taking action on whether Musk will be deported or rejoin the administration before the year is over.
Will Elon Musk Be Deported In 2025?
- Yes +1000
Will Elon Musk Rejoin The Trump Administration In 2025?
- Yes +800
Musk is not favored to be deported or rejoin Trump, but there are massive payouts on the line should either come to fruition.
Sources: BetUS | Newsweek | Politico
