As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, the markets for Oscars betting have crystallized into a high-stakes showdown between a storied auteur and a new generation of superstars.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s political thriller, One Battle After Another, has emerged as a powerhouse, dominating the odds across nearly every major category after a triumphant run at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes.
However, the night remains far from predictable. With Timothée Chalamet leading a fiercely competitive Best Actor race and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners nipping at the heels of the frontrunners, bettors are finding value in a field that balances veteran prestige with indie electricity.
Best Actor
The race for Best Actor is a fascinating clash of “The Kid” vs. “The Legend.” Timothée Chalamet (-300) is the current favorite at entertainment sportsbooks for his transformative, high-energy portrayal of a ping-pong prodigy in Marty Supreme.
While Leonardo DiCaprio (+400) delivers a career-best, vulnerable performance in Anderson’s epic, the betting momentum favors Chalamet’s physical commitment. Michael B. Jordan (+700) remains a dark horse for Sinners, though he faces a steep climb against Chalamet’s critical sweep.
| Nominee | Odds |
| Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | -300 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | +400 |
| Michael B Jordan (Sinners) | +700 |
| Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | +750 |
| Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | +1800 |
Best Actress
This category features the most lopsided odds of the night. Jessie Buckley (-3300) is effectively a lock for her haunting performance as Agnes Hathaway in Hamnet. Critics have called her work a “generation-defining” portrayal of grief.
Rose Byrne (+1400) earned a surprise Golden Globe win in the Comedy/Musical category, but the market suggests she is a distant second. Kate Hudson (+1800) and Emma Stone (+2500) provide sentimental value but lack the raw momentum Buckley has maintained since Sundance.
| Nominee | Odds |
| Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | -3300 |
| Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs Id Kick You) | +1400 |
| Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | +1800 |
| Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) | +2000 |
| Emma Stone (Bugonia) | +2500 |
Best Adapted Screenplay
Adaptation is the field where Paul Thomas Anderson (-3300) is expected to finally secure his long-overdue screenplay statue. His work on One Battle After Another (rumored to be based on Pynchon’s Vineland) has been lauded for its complex structure.
Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (+1400) is the only realistic challenger, given its emotional resonance. Outside of those two, the odds suggest that Clint Bentley (+1600) and Guillermo del Toro (+2500) are simply happy to be in the conversation.
| Nominee | Odds |
| One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson) | -3300 |
| Hamnet (Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell) | +1400 |
| Train Dreams (Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar) | +1600 |
| Bugonia (Will Tracy) | +2500 |
| Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro) | +2500 |
Best Director
In what looks like a coronation, Paul Thomas Anderson (-3300) is the overwhelming favorite to take home his first Best Director Oscar. After decades of nominations, the “overdue” narrative is working in tandem with the film’s undeniable technical mastery.
Ryan Coogler (+1400) has high support for the ambitious genre-bending of Sinners, and Chloé Zhao (+1400) is respected for her visual poetry, but the market reflects a “this is PTA’s year” sentiment that is nearly impossible to bet against.
| Nominee | Odds |
| Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | -3300 |
| Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) | +1400 |
| Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | +1400 |
| Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) | +3300 |
| Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) | +4000 |
Best Original Screenplay
Unlike the Adapted category, Original Screenplay offers a genuine fight. Ryan Coogler (-800) is the favorite for Sinners, a script praised for its “fresh and original” narrative structure. However, the Safdie/Bronstein duo for Marty Supreme (+700) is gaining ground as a “vibe-check” favorite for younger Academy members.
If there is going to be a major upset that ruins “safe” parlays, it is likely here in this entertainment prop, especially if voters decide to reward the Safdies’ frantic, unique storytelling.
| Nominee | Odds |
| Sinners (Ryan Coogler) | -800 |
| Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | +700 |
| It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi) | +900 |
| Sentimental Value (Eskil Vogt & Joachin Trier) | +1400 |
| Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow) | +4000 |
Best Picture
The night’s biggest prize currently belongs to One Battle After Another (-700). It is the safe bet, backed by 13 nominations and a clear path through the guilds. However, Sinners (+450) is the “value play” for those betting on a late-breaking surge of populist support.
While films like Hamnet (+1400) and Marty Supreme (+3000) have passionate fanbases, the sheer scale and critical consensus behind Anderson’s latest make it the heavy favorite to win the 98th Academy Awards.
| Nominee | Odds |
| One Battle After Another | -700 |
| Sinners | +450 |
| Hamnet | +1400 |
| Marty Supreme | +3000 |
| Sentimental Value | +6000 |
| Bugonia | +10000 |
| Frankenstein | +10000 |
| Train Dreams | +10000 |
| F1 | +20000 |
| The Secret Agent | +20000 |
Bovada Sportsbook | Official Website Of The 98th Academy Awards
