Last week’s first presidential debate of 2024 revealed what many pundits have been shouting for years – that Joe Biden’s mental health is questionable. Not only have his polling numbers slipped well behind Trump, but Democrats are also suggesting that another candidate may be the party’s best chance of keeping the White House this November.
Online political sportsbooks have updated their election odds, and Biden has now pulled even with Vice President Kamala Harris for second place, suggesting two outcomes – Harris could end up being the DNC nominee, and Biden has no real shot at winning in 2024.
US Presidential Election 2024 Winner
- Donald Trump Sr. -185, -185
- Joe Biden +550, +550
- Kamala Harris +550, +550
- Michelle Obama +2000, +1600
- Bovada and BetOnline
Trump is now resting 85 points south of even money, while Biden’s +550 moneyline translates to a 15% chance of winning. Cool Joe is also falling closer to the pack in his own party, as Harris is within 100 points of him at most books.
Democratic Candidate Odds
- Joe Biden -105, +115
- Kamala Harris +185, +185
- Gretchen Whitmer +1500, +700
- Michelle Obama +1500, +1100
- Bovada and BetOnline
Sources from within Biden’s campaign have confirmed that Harris is indeed the preferred choice should he drop out of the race.
“It’s pretty near impossible to win the nomination over the vice president,”
Michael Trujillo – Hillary Clinton Campaign Strategist In 2008, 2016
The following political prop bet implies that virtually anyone would hold a better shot of securing the Democratic nomination over Biden should the party open the door to that possibility.
Democratic Candidate: Biden vs. Field
- Joe Biden -110
- The Field -120
- Bovada
According to polls and betting odds, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are other potential candidates. Even worse for Biden are his odds of suspending his campaign before the month, which are identical for both yes and no.
Will Biden Withdraw From The Election In July?
- Yes -120
- No -120
- BetOnline
There are head-to-head betting lines facing Trump against several potential non-Biden opponents, but the only one who holds an advantage right now is Michelle Obama.
Trump vs. Obama Head-To-Head
- Michelle Obama -175
- Donald Trump Sr. +135
- BetOnline
Obama has expressed her lack of interest in running for political office in the past. If Biden ends up withdrawing from the election, expect Obama to make an official statement on the matter.
The second presidential debate is not until September 10th, the Tuesday after Labor Day week, so the DNC has some time to make up ground should the party decide to go a different direction.
By then, there may be a third presidential candidate included in the debate – Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (independent). RFK is on pace to qualify for the stage as he seems poised to appear on the ballot in a few more states.
Sources:
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