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UFC 321: Aspinall Favored Over Gane in Heavyweight Championship Fight

Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane in front of a city skyline

UFC 321 will feature a main event heavyweight championship bout between current champion Tom Aspinall and former interim champion Ciryl Gane on Saturday, October 25, 2025.

The event is being held at the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. The main card is scheduled to start at 2 p.m. ET, with prelims beginning at 10 a.m. ET. Fans can watch the fights live via Pay-Per-View, while preliminary bouts will stream on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Betting Line

  • Aspinall -410
  • Gane +305
  • Over: 1.5 (-130)
  • Under: 1.5 (EVEN)

The betting line for Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane at UFC 321 places Aspinall, the reigning champ, as a strong favorite at -410. UFC sportsbooks are likely showing confidence in his striking power and grappling dominance, suggesting that he’ll overpower Gane at some point during the five-round bout.

Gane, at +305, is a heavy underdog, but his technical striking and reach advantage make him worthy of upset consideration. Payouts on a Gane win at UFC 321 will deliver three times what gamblers risk.

The over/under for total rounds is set at 1.5, but the -130 juice for over implies that the fight will be stopped after the second round.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane  Tale Of The Tape

Tom Aspinall Ciryl Gane
Record 15-3 13-2
Height 6’5″ (196 cm) 6’4″ (193 cm)
Weight 253 lbs (115 kg) 245 lbs (111 kg)
Age 32 35
Reach 78 inches (198 cm) 81 inches (206 cm)
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 32 35
Average Fight Time 2:02 14:15
Strikes per Minute 8.07 5.3
Striking Accuracy 67% 61%
Submission avg per 15 min 1.6 0.6
Finish Rate (KO/TKO) 68% 34%
Finish Rate (Submission) 23% 17%

 

Will The Fight Go The Distance

  • Yes +500
  • No -900

UFC prop bets for the main event also reflect the outcome projected in the over/under – the fight will not go the distance.

Total Rounds Over/Under

  • Under 2.5 −285
  • Under 3.5 −550
  • Under 4.5 −800
  • Over 2.5 +210
  • Over 3.5 +350
  • Over 4.5 +475

Additional fight props narrow down the projected finish outcomes to some point in the middle of the second round. Winning bets in the above two MMA prop bets will payout regardless of who the winner is.

Round Betting

  • Tom Aspinall – Round 1 +210
  • Tom Aspinall – Round 2 +350
  • Tom Aspinall – Round 3 +600
  • Tom Aspinall – By Points +750
  • Tom Aspinall – Round 4 +1000
  • Ciryl Gane – By Points +1000
  • Tom Aspinall – Round 5 +1600
  • Ciryl Gane – Round 2 +1600
  • Ciryl Gane – Round 1 +1100
  • Ciryl Gane – Round 4 +3300
  • Ciryl Gane – Round 5 +3300
  • Ciryl Gane – Round 3 +2500
  • Draw +8000

Gamblers who call their shot and pick the winning fighter and the exact round it happens can really cash in on Saturday. A Ciryl Gane win in rounds four or five will deliver 33x payouts versus the size of the bet.

None of Gane’s thirteen career wins have come during the fourth or fifth rounds.

Bovada Sportsbook (review) | Full UFC 321 Card

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