Will Donald Trump be impeached?
The latest odds say, “Don’t bet on it.”
This week has been a whirlwind for American politics. From the whistleblower’s complaint to an official impeachment inquiry into President Trump, followed by transcripts and testimonies, the future of the United States is in limbo.
While everything is playing out, MyBookie is accepting prop bets on the future of Trump’s Presidency. Oddsmakers are taking action on Trump’s impeachment odds, reelection chances, or if the President will simply resign before the end of his first term.
Before diving into the Trump impeachment odds for the political prop bets—to get a better understanding of what’s happening at the moment—a timeline for the Trump whistleblower complaint is provided below:
- August 12: Whistleblower files complaint with the intelligence inspector general regarding a July 25 phone call alleging Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden in exchange for military aid.
- September 9: Three House Committees launch an investigation into the alleged pressure Trump applied to Ukraine to assist his reelection efforts.
- September 10: Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff demands the whistleblower’s complaint be turned over after it is not sent to Congress.
- September 13: Schiff subpoenas Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire.
- September 19: The Washington Post and The New York Times reveal that the whistleblower’s concern regarded Ukraine.
- September 22: Trump says that he discussed looking Biden family with Zelensky in July, but that there was no “quid pro quo” or military aid withheld.
- September 24: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announces there will be a formal impeachment inquiry into the President.
- September 25: Trump releases the transcript of the call between him and Zelensky.
- September 26: Maguire gives his testimony to the House Intelligence Committee, and whistleblower complaint is released.
The whistleblower’s complaint became publicly available today and claims that the White House tried to “lock down” the information in an attempt to cover up the incident. After reading the complaint document, Pelosi agreed with the coverup notion.
Trump has denied all allegations of wrongdoing and has taken to Twitter to tweet out both his distaste for how the Democrats are treating him and what he thinks about the whistleblower bombshell.
There has been no President in the history of our Country who has been treated so badly as I have. The Democrats are frozen with hatred and fear. They get nothing done. This should never be allowed to happen to another President. Witch Hunt!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 25, 2019
THE GREATEST SCAM IN THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN POLITICS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 26, 2019
Pelosi, who has launched an official impeachment inquiry and agrees with the whistleblower that there’s is a coverup afoot, will need to follow the process in place needed to remove a sitting president.
First, the House Judiciary Committee holds an investigation and recommends articles of impeachment to the House if the findings are sufficient.
The House then holds a vote on the articles. If a majority of the House vote to impeach, Trump will be impeached at that point.
If impeached, the articles move to the Senate where a trial is held with a vote to convict the President. If two-thirds vote to convict, Trump will be removed from office.
Of the two other presidents to reach this point, Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson, both were acquitted and completed their terms. Richard Nixon also faced impeachment and removal from office following the Watergate scandal but resigned on August 9, 1974, before there was a vote by the House.
The most pertinent prop bet offered on MyBookie is whether or not Trump will be impeached before the 2020 election, oddsmakers overwhelmingly believe Trump won’t be impeached with “No” receiving -500 odds.
Will Trump be impeached before the 2020 election?
- Yes +300
- No -500
There is a chance, however, that Trump could do what Richard Nixon did. Seeing that his impeachment was inevitable following the Watergate Scandal, Nixon resigned as president before being impeached.
Oddsmakers don’t see this happening to Trump, though. At -9000 that he won’t resign, it would take a $9,000 bet just to get $100.
Will Trump resign before the end of his first term?
- Yes +1200
- No -9000
MyBookie does think Trump will run for reelection in 2020. At -1000 odds he’ll run again next year, it looks like a safe bet. The sportsbook also gives Trump -300 odds of winning in 2020, beating out Elizabeth Warren (+400) and Joe Biden (+550).
Will Trump run for reelection in 2020?
- Yes -1000
- No +500
The -300 odds amongst all candidates mirrors the chances MyBookie gives Trump on his second term chances. It should be noted that the chances here are much closer than the other bets.
Although there’s a -300 Trump is reelected, there’s still +200 chances (33.33%) he loses in 2020.
Will Trump be elected to a second term as President?
- Yes -300
- No +200
To lighten the mood somewhat—or to possibly depict a darker image of worldwide politics—MyBookie is also accepting action on which world leader will leave office first between Trump and the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who’s currently under fire from Parliament over Brexit negotiations.
Johnson is favored to be gone before Trump at -350 odds.
Who will be out of office first?
- Boris Johnson -350
- Donald Trump +250