Connect with us

Sports

Despite Poor Gate Draw, Epicenter Extends Odds To Win 2022 Kentucky Derby

epicenter horse kentucky derby favorite

The 148th Run for the Roses is just two days away, and as you might expect, 2022 Kentucky Derby betting is live at all the best online sportsbooks.

Of course, you’ve been able to bet on Kentucky Derby futures for some time now, as the best betting sites tend to post futures a month or more out from the race (usually before the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep series concludes).

Naturally, the best horses of the season are those with the best odds to win the Kentucky Derby (with the overall favorite also being the leading horse on the Triple Crown betting boards), and the top handful of favorites are pretty much the top handful of favorites for most of the pre-race betting window.

However, those odds can and do customarily change somewhat once the Kentucky Derby post positions are announced about a week out from the event.

As an example of how that works before we get into why that works, here’s how the Derby odds looked before the post position drawing on Monday, May 2:

2022 Kentucky Derby Odds – Before Post Drawing

Via Bovada Racebook

  • Epicenter +400
  • Messier +650
  • Taiba +650
  • Zandon +800
  • Mo Donegal +1000
  • White Abarrio +1100
  • Charge It +1400
  • Smile Happy +1400
  • Tiz The Bomb +1600
  • Cyberknife +1800
  • Early Voting +1800
  • Simplification +2000
  • Zozos +2000
  • Barber Road +2800
  • Pioneer Of Medina +3000
  • Crown Pride +3300
  • In Due Time +4000
  • Tawny Port +5000
  • Happy Jack +8000
  • Summer Is Tomorrow +8000
  • Un Ojo +10000
  • Ethereal Road +15000

Now, here’s how the odds stand on Thursday evening (numbered by gate position, with prior odds and summary deltas in parentheses):

2022 Kentucky Derby Odds – After Post Drawing

Via Bovada Racebook

  1. Mo Donegal +1100 (+1000, up 100)
  2. Happy Jack +6600 (+8000, down 1400)
  3. Epicenter +300 (+400, down 100)
  4. Summer Is Tomorrow +6600 (+8000, down 1400)
  5. Smile Happy +1600 (+1400, up 200)
  6. Messier +700 (+650, up 50)
  7. Crown Pride +2500 (+3300, down 800)
  8. Charge It +1200 (+1400, down 200)
  9. Tiz The Bomb +2500 (+1600, up 900)
  10. Zandon +500 (+800, down 300)
  11. Pioneer Of Medina +3300 (+3000, up 300)
  12. Taiba +600 (+650, down 50)
  13. Simplification +2000 (+2000, no change)
  14. Barber Road +4000 (+2800, up 1200)
  15. White Abarrio +1200 (+1100, up 100)
  16. Cyberknife +1800 (+1800, no change)
  17. Classic Causeway +4000 (new)
  18. Tawny Port +5000 (+5000, no change)
  19. Zozos +2500 (+2000, up 500)
  20. Ethereal Road +6600 (+15000, down 8400)
  21. Rich Strike +8000 (new)
  22. Rattle N Roll +5000 (new)

While only 20 horses will run in the Derby, you can see above that alternates are on hand in case of any late scratches.

Now, the Kentucky Derby favorite, Epicenter, didn’t move much by drawing the third gate, though he did move. And surprisingly, despite the less-than-ideal nature of the third post position historically (5.4% win rate), he actually shortened his odds to win by 100 points!

Meanwhile, Taiba got a slight boost over Messier, and Zandon (let’s go!) went from +800 to +500 as the favorite to place.

Ethereal Road saw the biggest jump, going from +15000 odds to +6600 odds, but he’s still at the bottom of the list and shares the longest odds of any horse that’s slated to start as of right now.

For all intents and purposes, the horse to make the biggest strides on the betting board as a result of his gate draw is Crown Pride, who went from 16th at +3300 to 11th at +2500.

To be clear, a poor gate position generally won’t make a strong favorite an underdog, nor will a strong gate position make an underdog a favorite.

However, gate draws always lead to some shuffling within the top five and – usually – considerable shuffling within all of the middle of the pack.

Here are the full 2022 Kentucky Derby odds listed from most favorite to longest shot, as they stand just 48 hours out:

  • Epicenter +300
  • Zandon +500
  • Taiba +600
  • Messier +700
  • Mo Donegal +1100
  • Charge It +1200
  • White Abarrio +1200
  • Smile Happy +1600
  • Cyberknife +1800
  • Simplification +2000
  • Crown Pride +2500
  • Tiz The Bomb +2500
  • Zozos +2500
  • Pioneer Of Medina +3300
  • Barber Road +4000
  • Classic Causeway +4000
  • Rattle N Roll +5000
  • Tawny Port +5000
  • Ethereal Road +6600
  • Happy Jack +6600
  • Summer Is Tomorrow +6600
  • Rich Strike +8000

So, you can see that the Kentucky Derby gate lottery has changed the odds for several horses.

Part of that’s due to the fact that the drawing brings the final Kentucky Derby field completely into focus. But it’s also because – since 1930 when gates were introduced at Churchill Downs – every final position has been tracked and correlated with each horse’s Kentucky Derby starting position.

With over 90 years of data to draw from, this gives savvy horseplayers a potential edge that more casual gamblers probably won’t concern themselves with.

Here’s how the Kentucky Derby gate positions have stacked up over the history of the event:

Kentucky Derby Winning Gates – By Gate

  • Gate 1: 8 wins in 92 starts (8.7%)
  • Gate 2: 7 wins in 92 starts (7.6%)
  • Gate 3: 5 wins in 92 starts (5.4%)
  • Gate 4: 5 wins in 92 starts (5.4%)
  • Gate 5: 10 wins in 92 starts (10.9%)
  • Gate 6: 2 wins in 92 starts (2.2%)
  • Gate 7: 8 wins in 91 starts (8.8%)
  • Gate 8: 8 wins in 91 starts (8.8%)
  • Gate 9: 4 wins in 88 starts (4.5%)
  • Gate 10: 9 wins in 85 starts (10.6%)
  • Gate 11: 2 wins in 81 starts (2.5%)
  • Gate 12: 3 wins in 77 starts (3.9%)
  • Gate 13: 5 wins in 75 starts (6.7%)
  • Gate 14: 2 wins in 65 starts (3.1%)
  • Gate 15: 6 wins in 60 starts (10.0%)
  • Gate 16: 4 wins in 49 starts (8.2%)
  • Gate 17: 0 wins in 42 starts (0%)
  • Gate 18: 2 wins in 34 starts (5.9%)
  • Gate 19: 1 win in 29 starts (3.4%)
  • Gate 20: 1 win in 17 starts (5.9%)

And as our last bit of assistance before we wind it all down, put on our fanciest hat, and get plastered on a bunch of decidedly mid-shelf minty snifters, here are the most successful Kentucky Derby gates in order:

Kentucky Derby Winning Gates – By Percentage

  1. Gate 5:9%
  2. Gate 10:6%
  3. Gate 15:0%
  4. Gate 7:8%
  5. Gate 8:8%
  6. Gate 1:7%
  7. Gate 16:2%
  8. Gate 2:6%
  9. Gate 13:7%
  10. Gate 18:9%
  11. Gate 20:9%
  12. Gate 3:4%
  13. Gate 4:4%
  14. Gate 9:5%
  15. Gate 12:9%
  16. Gate 19:4%
  17. Gate 14:1%
  18. Gate 11:5%
  19. Gate 6:2%
  20. Gate 17: 0%

There you have it.

And now that we’ve dispensed with the formalities, go ahead and ignore all of the above and put a $2 trifecta on the first three horses on the boards like you were already going to.

Egads and criminy, why – I say, why – do we even bother?

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

More in Sports