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Mueller testimony prop bets: Odds heavily against Trump collusion, obstruction confirmation

Trump-Mueller

It may finally be “Mueller Time,” but the odds say even he can’t “Stump the Trump” during tomorrow’s testimony.

Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller is scheduled to testify before Congress at 8:30 am ET on Wednesday, July 24, on the findings from his 448-page report regarding the investigation of Russian interference during the 2016 election and whether President Donald Trump committed obstruction of justice or conspired with Russia.

Mueller testimony prop bets

Bovada Sportsbook released prop bets for tomorrow’s hearings, and their oddsmakers predict there is pretty much no chance Mueller confirms that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 election.

Currently, the “No” confirmation of collusion odds are listed at -650 — $650 bet wins $100 — which means the oddsmakers say there’s an 83.05% chance Mueller won’t say Trump colluded while a “Yes” odds have been given +375 which indicates a 16.95% implied probability.

Will Mueller confirm “collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia?

  • No -650
  • Yes +375

On the question of whether Trump committed obstruction, oddsmakers aren’t quite as confident but nevertheless believe Mueller won’t confirm that either with “No” receiving odds of -350 (73.66%) and “Yes” given +225 odds (26.34%).

Will Mueller confirm that Trump committed “obstruction of justice”?

  • No -350
  • Yes +225

And because the oddsmakers believe that Mueller won’t confirm collusion or obstruction against Trump, they also predict House Democrats won’t have grounds to begin impeachment proceedings.

The prop bet sets the deadline for impeachment to begin by the end of 2019 and lists “No” with -500 odds (79.38%) and “Yes” at +300 (20.62%), which falls roughly in the middle of the collusion and obstruction chances the oddsmaker have listed.

Will the House begin impeachment proceedings by December 31, 2019?

  • No -500
  • Yes +300

And lastly, no list of political prop bets since 2017 would be complete without the newly established tradition of listing the over/under for the number of times Trump will tweet during a major event.

Oddsmakers are giving Trump the entire day to tweet about the congressional hearing, but retweets without comments by the President won’t be counted. The total is set at 12.5 tweets, with the under listed as a narrow favorite at -130 (52.08%) while the over received -110 odds (47.92%).

How many times will @RealDonaldTrump tweet on Wednesday, July 24th, 2019?

Tweet count starts Wednesday, July 24th from 12:00 am ET until 11:59 pm ET. Retweets without comment will be excluded from the final count.

  • Under 12.5 tweets -130
  • Over 12.5 tweets -110

Schedule for Mueller hearings

The Mueller testimony will broadcast and streamed live on Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, C-SPAN, and other major media networks.

The following is the schedule for the two hearings:

8:30 am ET ‒ 11:30 am ET: The House Judiciary Committee will question Mueller on his investigation into obstruction of justice. Judiciary chairman and Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler will lead the discussion for the first hearing.

30-minute recess: All parties will be given a half-hour break before the second hearing begins.

Noon ET ‒ 2:00 pm ET: The House Intelligence Committee will question Mueller on Russian interference in the 2016 election. Intelligence chairman and Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff will lead the discussion for the second hearing.

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