The Iowa Caucus takes place on January 15th, 2024, setting off the Republican Party Primary cycle to determine the next GOP Presidential candidate. Efforts have been underway to remove Donald Trump from the GOP Primary ballots in Michigan, Oregon, Minnesota, and Colorado, but none have gained the needed support or gained victory in court until now.
Yesterday, the Colorado Supreme Court delivered a 4-3 ruling that will remove Trump from the 2024 Republican Primary ballots based on his connection to the invasion of the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The ineligibility of Trump is expected to be appealed to the United States Supreme Court where the decision has a strong chance of being overturned. Not only is there a 6-3 Republican majority on the bench, but President Trump appointed three of the Justices personally (Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett).
Another argument in support of Trump’s inclusion on the Colorado ballot is that he has yet to be convicted of a crime. The legal team of the former President has stalled court proceedings, with many cases now positioned to last well into the 2024 campaign season and possibly beyond election day.
While Trump does seem to have a strong chance of a victory on appeal, votes will be cast in CO on March 5, 2024, putting his campaign and the SCOTUS on the clock.
There is also the logistics of placing Trump back onto the ballot should he win on appeal – something that will require a significant amount of time and must begin well in advance of votes being cast.
Legal online political sportsbooks have begun posting primary betting lines with and without Donald Trump listed in the odds as a precautionary measure. The following Iowa Caucus prop bets reveal the gap between GOP leader Trump and the rest of the pack.
Iowa Caucus Popular Vote Winner
- Donald Trump -1000
- Nikki Haley +1000
- Ron DeSantis +1200
- Vivek Ramaswamy +3000
Iowa Caucus Popular Vote Winner Without Trump
- Nikki Haley -110
- Ron DeSantis +110
- Vivek Ramaswamy +1000
The odds for betting on Donald Trump place him in a commanding lead over the remainder of the GOP candidates, with an 1800-point edge on Nikki Haley. Removing Trump from the equation reveals that Haley is a slight favorite over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
However, political prop bets for Trump’s current legal challenges suggest that he’ll be found guilty of at least one count in his cases in New York and Georgia, and in his case involving mishandling of classified documents.
Classified Documents Case – Number Of Guilty Counts For Trump
- 34 or More -110
- Under 10 +150
- Between 10-33 +400
Georgia Election Tampering Case – Number Of Guilty Counts For Trump
- 11-13 -145
- 3-10 +225
- 0-2 +325
Hush Money/Stormy Daniels – Number of Guilty Counts For Trump
- 25 or More -120
- Under 5 +200
- Between 5-24 +300
Timing is everything, and it will be the determining factor for whether Trump can be included on ballots or if any of these charges will stick. Time is also of the essence if you intend to bet on Trump or any of the above political odds because they have the potential to expire at any moment.
Sources:
- Bovada Political Sportsbook (Bovada LV Review)
- BetOnline Political Sporst Betting Site (BetOnline AG Review)
- The New York Times
- The Iowa GOP Caucus Official Website
