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Trump’s Odds Of Guilt Improve While Jury Deliberates

a courtroom sketch of Donald Trump facing his jurors

Did Donald Trump pay a sum of money to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal to cover up affairs and then deliberately misreport the expenditure in official filings? The jury in Trump’s Hush Money trial in New York is now in its second day of deliberation, where the fate of the former President’s legal future hangs in the balance.

Since the jurors have begun deliberating, they’ve had the testimonies of a few key witnesses recounted. Those included are former “Trump-fixer” Michael Cohen and David Pecker, the former CEO of the company that owns the National Enquirer.

Pecker allegedly led the effort to catch and kill any stories that would harm Donald’s chances of winning the 2016 election by paying for exclusive publishing rights and never printing them.

The jury has also asked for clarifications regarding the overall timeline of events and the judge’s general instructions regarding the process of deciding innocence or guilt.

While the country waits for the results, online political sportsbooks have created props regarding the trial and its outcome.

Will Trump Be Found Guilty?

Trump is charged with 34 counts, all of which must be decided on. The following political prop bet suggests that Trump will be found guilty on at least one count.

Will Trump Be Found Guilty Of One Or More Felonies In New York?

  • Yes -210
  • No +155

The -200 moneyline odds on Trump receiving one or more guilty verdicts implies a 2 in 3 chance. While these odds may appear dire for Trump, they have improved by a few points since they were first posted months ago.

Will There Be A Hung Jury Or A Mistrial?

There is also the potential for the jurors to fail to agree on one or more of the charges, resulting in a hung jury. The current political odds don’t favor that outcome, but both options could reasonably occur.

Odds On A Hung Jury Or Mistrial?

  • Jury To Be Hung And Judge To Call A Mistrial +150
  • Verdict Or Partial Verdict To Be Reached -200

Will Trump Go To Jail?

Felony convictions often result in some time behind bars, even for white-collar crimes like Trump is accused of.

Will Trump Be Imprisoned Before Election?

  • Yes +500
  • No -900

Most sportsbooks that are providing odds for the trial project at least one guilty verdict, but none of them are suggesting he’ll go to jail. This Trump jail prop only pays out for “yes” if he spends at least 1 full day in jail before election day on November 5, 2024, as a result of his Hush Money case conviction.

This would not be the first time a convicted felon ran for POTUS, but it would mark the first occasion that a Presidential Candidate had a solid chance at winning.


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