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Student Loan Forgiveness And Its Effect On Joe Biden’s Odds For Reelection

image for protesters asking Biden to forgive all student loan debt

President Joe Biden has announced a plan that will eliminate a portion of existing student loan debt for qualifying candidates. Up to $10,000 in relief can be expected for those that make under $125,000 per year ($250,000 for a couple), and that extends to $20,000 for Federal Pell Grants.

This delivery on one of his campaign promises comes on the heels of the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, a major accomplishment considering it had to make it through a 50-50 US Senate.

There’s never anything wrong with a politician coming through on promises that they’ve made to their constituents, but with the 2022 midterm elections approaching, Biden’s timing has come into question.

Voters across the entire political spectrum are suspicious, believing that Biden is attempting to stack the deck in his favor in advance of November.

This suspicion is backed up by the odds presented at political betting sites for Joe Biden’s reelection chances. Despite these two significant efforts to create sweeping fiscal change for the positive, his projections for 2024 have not budged.

Biden’s approval rating recently rose to 44%, his highest in over 12 months. Political prop bets are now forecasting his rating come September 1, and the outlook is not good.

Joe Biden’s Approval Rating On September 1st

  • 41.00-41.99% +165
  • 42.00-42.99% +200
  • 43% or Higher +375
  • 40.00-40.99% +400
  • 39.00-39.99% +1200
  • 38.00-38.99% +12500
  • Under 38% +50000

The most likely scenario, according to the above betting line, is that Biden’s approval drops to below 24% next Wednesday. Gamblers that believe Biden will maintain an approval rating north of 43% should lay some action on BetOnline’s +375 moneyline for that outcome right now.

Bets of $1 will net payouts of $3.75 if Joe can hold his position, and unlike most political odds, this line will pay out within a few days.

The odds get worse when browsing Biden’s odds to win reelection in 2024. If the below political prop is accurate, Biden has just under a 90% probability of losing the 2024 election.

Biden to Win Second Term?

  • No -850
  • Yes +450

Here’s where it gets a little confusing. The current Presidential election odds place both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis in the lead, above Biden and all other 2024 Presidential Candidates.

While Biden leads the odds to become the 2024 Presidential Candidate for the Democratic Party, the below betting line suggests that it will not be Trump vs. Biden next cycle.

Trump v Biden in 2024?

  • No -900
  • Yes +500

Two factors are in play that makes the above odds seem askew when compared to other lines. The first is Biden’s advanced age and declining popularity within the DNC. There is a chance that Joe decides not to run again, and the possibility of his ouster is also in play.

On the GOP side, Trump has the January 6 and Mar-a-Lago investigations hanging over his head. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is poised to take over the Republican Party when Trump exits the picture, or perhaps before if his influence continues to grow.

Removing the candidates from the picture, the odds become much clearer.

US 2024 Presidential Election – Winning Party

  • Republicans -130
  • Democrats -110
  • Any Other Party +3300

It seems that no matter who represents the GOP and DNC, the United States appears to be headed for another tight Presidential election in 2024. Uncertainty is only introduced when trying to nail down a winning candidate at this juncture.

November 8th, the day votes are cash for the 2022 midterms, is over two months away. Perhaps Biden can squeeze another win or two in prior to election day. Until then, it is DeSantis or Trump’s race to lose.

Sources – Forbes, BetOnline

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