The AFC East could produce one of the NFL’s most competitive divisional races during the 2026 season, although oddsmakers believe two teams have separated themselves from the rest of the field.
Buffalo is the -130 favorite to win the division, but New England is close behind at +130 following its surprising run to Super Bowl LX. The New York Jets are a distant +2000, while the Miami Dolphins have the longest odds in the AFC East at +4000.
The market for NFL playoff betting tells a similar story. Buffalo and New England are both favored to qualify for the postseason, while bettors can receive significant gains on Miami or New York reaching the NFL playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
- AFC East odds: -130
- To make the playoffs: Yes -330, No +235
- AFC Championship odds: +500
- Super Bowl LXI odds: +1200
The Bills remain the AFC East favorite, but Buffalo enters a new era after replacing longtime head coach Sean McDermott with Joe Brady. The offense will continue to revolve around Josh Allen, who is also the +600 favorite to win the NFL MVP award.
Buffalo added another established weapon by acquiring wide receiver DJ Moore, who is expected to join Khalil Shakir near the top of the receiving rotation. The move should help an offense that has sometimes relied too heavily on Allen to create explosive plays.
The stage-of-elimination market lists a Divisional Round loss at +300 as Buffalo’s shortest postseason outcome. A Wild Card exit is +260, while both winning the Super Bowl and losing the Super Bowl are priced at +1100.
At -330 to reach the playoffs, Buffalo offers little return unless included in a parlay. The more interesting Buffalo Bills bet may be +500 to win the AFC, particularly if Moore quickly develops chemistry with Allen.
New England Patriots
- AFC East odds: +130
- To make the playoffs: Yes -215, No +160
- AFC Championship odds: +800
- Super Bowl LXI odds: +2000
New England is no longer being treated like a franchise that is rebuilding. After reaching Super Bowl LX, the Patriots are priced as Buffalo’s primary challenger and the fifth choice to win the AFC.
Quarterback Drake Maye ranks near the top of the preseason NFL MVP odds at +900, trailing only Allen and Lamar Jackson among the listed favorites. That number reflects both Maye’s development and the expectations surrounding New England after its breakthrough season.
The Patriots strengthened an already promising secondary by adding veteran safety Kevin Byard, who is expected to play alongside emerging defender Craig Woodson.
New England’s most likely elimination result is a Wild Card loss at +240, followed by a Divisional Round exit at +360. However, +800 to win the AFC and +2000 to win Super Bowl LXI provide more value than the Patriots’ relatively expensive -215 playoff price.
New York Jets
- AFC East odds: +2000
- To make the playoffs: Yes +600, No -1200
- AFC Championship odds: +17500
- Super Bowl LXI odds: +40000
The Jets are expected to improve after an aggressive roster overhaul, but the betting market remains skeptical.
Veteran Geno Smith has returned to lead the offense, while the defense added young pass rusher David Bailey and veteran safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Bailey is tied for the shortest Defensive Rookie of the Year odds at +500. The Jets also have two Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates in receiver Omar Cooper Jr. at +3000 and tight end Kenyon Sadiq at +3500.
New York may have enough defensive talent to become more competitive, but at +600 to reach the playoffs, a dramatic turnaround will need to occur. The Jets’ rookie award markets could be more realistic betting targets than their division or championship futures.
Miami Dolphins
- AFC East odds: +4000
- To make the playoffs: Yes +1000, No -4000
- AFC Championship odds: +17500
- Super Bowl LXI odds: +80000
No AFC East team enters 2026 with lower expectations than Miami. The Dolphins are +1000 to reach the playoffs and -4000 to miss them, indicating that oddsmakers view a postseason appearance as highly unlikely.
Miami is transitioning under a new defensive scheme, with 2025 first-round defensive tackle Kenneth Grant among the young players expected to take on a larger role.
The Dolphins’ +4000 division price and +80000 Super Bowl odds are tempting strictly because of the potential payout, but neither market offers much practical value without evidence of a major turnaround. Of the four teams, Miami carries the greatest combination of uncertainty and downside entering the new season.
Sources: Bovada Sportsbook (SportsBetting.Legal Bovada.LV Review) | Musket Fire
