Between March 11th and 15th, several members of Trump’s cabinet used the app Signal to discuss classified plans for airstrikes in Yemen. Signal is a third-party messaging and voice application that uses end-to-end encryption to conceal communications.
For some reason, U.S. national security advisor Mike Waltz goofed and added Jeffrey Goldberg, a reporter from the Atlantic, to the chat group. Goldberg remained silent about the content of the chat until after the strikes on Yemen were completed, thus confirming what he had seen was legitimate.
The Trump administration has tried its best to move beyond the situation, but political blowback has been swift, and the demand for answers is picking up steam.
When such an egregious error is committed at this high of a level, the expectation is that heads will roll. Thus far, no one has gotten the ax as a result of SignalGate, but political sportsbooks have created prop bets regarding any potential fallout.
Pete Hegseth: Defense Secretary Exit Date
- Q2 2025+550
- Q3 2025 +550
- Q4 2025 +650
- Not before 2026 -250
- @Bovada
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been in the crosshairs since the breach went public. Hegseth didn’t add Goldberg to the chat, but concerns are being raised about war plans being discussed on a public chat app.
The above political prop bet implies that Hegseth’s job is safe, at least until the end of the year.
Donald Trump Sr. Cabinet: Next Cabinet Member To Leave Their Post?
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +300
- Marco Rubio +350
- Pete Hegseth +500
- Tulsi Gabbard +500
- Linda McMahon +600
- John Ratcliffe +1000
- Scott Bessent +1200
- Pam Bondi +2000
- Kristi Noem +2000
- Lee Zeldin +2500
- @BetUS
BetUS and BetOnline have created odds asking who will be the next Trump cabinet member to depart. What’s intriguing is the differential in the odds between the two lines.
SignalGate: Next Trump Cabinet Member To Leave Their Position
- Michael Waltz (NatSec Advisor) +225
- Pete Hegseth +375
- Steve Witkoff (Special Envoy RU/ME) ++400
- Susie Wiles +700
- Marco Rubio +750
- Tulsi Gabbard +1000
- Stephen Miller (Deputy C.O.S.) +1000
- John Ratcliffe +1200
- Scott Bessent +1200
- J.D. Vance +15000
- @BetOnline
Savvy gamblers who like to line shop for the best payout can exploit the above two prop bets and maximize their winning potential. For example, Hegseth is garnering a +500 moneyline at BetUS and +375 odds at BetOnline.
Michael Waltz holds the lowest odds on the board. He would seem like an appropriate patsy in this scenario, but he’s not featured in the line offered by BetUS.
Trump’s 24 Cabinet Members: Number Of Full Terms
- Over 17.5 -120
- Under 17.5 -120
- @BetOnline
There was plenty of turnover in Trump’s cabinet during his first term as POTUS. The above prop features an over/under for cabinet members that will last for Trump’s entire second term and is set at 17.5.
These odds imply that at least seven members of his team will not last until his term is over in January 2029.
Sources:
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