Last Friday, a televised meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskyy at the White House went off script when the two disagreed on terms of a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire agreement.
The contentious meeting has cast doubt on the future of numerous European initiatives, and online political sportsbooks have created odds that attempt to project some of the outcomes.
Trump/Zelenskyy Specials
- Ukraine to hold a presidential election in 2025 +165
- Zelenskyy to appear on the cover of Vogue in 2025 +1200
- Zelenskyy to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize +300
- Trump and Zelenskyy to sign a deal on minerals by the end of March 2025 -350
- US to formally recognize any of Ukraine’s territory as being part of sovereign Russia in 2025 +125
- Trump and Zelenskyy to meet in person again in March 2025 +200
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s term as the president of Ukraine officially ended on May 20, 2024, but has remained in office due to the declaration of martial law that dates back to the beginning of the Russian conflict in 2022.
The ongoing war makes hosting elections logistically impossible, but following last week’s meeting, Trump is suggesting that Ukraine needs new leadership. The above political prop bet implies that a Ukraine presidential election in 2025 is unlikely but possible.
According to the odds, an agreement between the US and Ukraine for minerals by the end of March 2025 seems inevitable. There is also a decent likelihood that the US will recognize some areas of Ukraine as Russian territory, potentially as part of a ceasefire agreement.
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire in 2025?
- Yes -230
- No +160
The probability of a ceasefire agreement seems very likely. For this prop to pay out, Ukraine and Russia need to each formally agree to the cessation of all military activity for a given length of time by the end of the year, even if the start date is after 2025.
Will Trump meet Putin by the end of April 2025?
- Yes -125
- No -105
Will Donald Trump Sr. Visit Russia In 2025?
- Yes -120
- No -120
A favorable rating has been granted to the possibility of a Trump-Putin meeting before the end of April, and there’s a decent chance that it could be held in Russia. However, the odds of “no” to a Putin meeting and a Russian visit are also favorable.
Will Donald Trump Sr. Visit Ukraine In 2025?
- Yes +325
- No -550
While there is a solid chance that Trump could visit Russia, there’s no real shot of him visiting Ukraine, at least not this year.
Vladimir Putin To Be Replaced As Russian President Before The End Of 2025?
- Yes +300
Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian president in May 2024. His current term expires in 2030. Online sportsbooks have created a line on whether he’ll be replaced as president before the end of 2025, but the moneyline odds point toward his retention.
A +300 moneyline equates to a 25% chance of occurrence.
Sources:
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