Serena Williams’ return to Wimbledon gives this year’s tournament one of its biggest early storylines. Williams has been away from regular singles competition for several years, which makes her comeback one of the most closely watched moments of the event.
She is not arriving as the dominant force who once controlled the grass at the All England Club – tennis sportsbooks aren’t giving her much of a chance – but she is also far more than a symbolic entrant.
With seven Wimbledon singles titles, 23 Grand Slam singles championships, and one major still separating her from the all-time record, Serena’s return adds history, intrigue, and a real question of how much championship-level tennis she still has left.
First Round: Serena Williams vs. Maya Joint
Serena opens against Maya Joint tomorrow at 11:20 am (EST), and the moneyline shows respect for Serena without making her the favorite.
Serena Williams vs. Maya Joint Betting Line
- Set Spread: Williams +2.0 (-110), Joint -2.0 (-120)
- Moneyline: Williams +125, Joint -150
- Over: 20.5 (-120)
- Under: 20.5 (-110)
The +125 moneyline implies Serena has a real upset chance, but Joint is still favored at -150 because she is younger, more active, and likely better prepared for the physical grind of a best-of-three match. Serena’s case is built around first-strike tennis. If her serve is sharp and she can shorten rallies, she can put scoreboard pressure on Joint quickly.
The set spread is interesting because Williams +2.0 essentially asks her to keep the match competitive. That fits the uncertainty around her comeback.
Even if Serena is not ready to win several matches in a row, she may still have enough serve, power, and Centre Court experience to avoid being overwhelmed. The total of 20.5 games also points toward a match where one tight set could push the Over into play. A 7-5, 6-4 type result either way would clear that number.
Serena’s Wimbledon Futures Odds
Serena is listed at +8000 to win at Wimbledon betting sites, which places her well outside the top tier of contenders. That number is less about her name value and more about the difficulty of asking a player returning to singles competition at 44 to beat several elite opponents in succession.
Wimbledon Futures
- Aryna Sabalenka+370
- Elena Rybakina+550
- Iga Swiatek+900
- Jessica Pegula+1000
- Mirra Andreeva+1200
- Coco Gauff+1400
- Amanda Anisimova+1800
- Madison Keys+1800
- Karolina Muchova+2200
- Linda Noskova+2500
- Elina Svitolina+2800
- Donna Vekic+4000
- Iva Jovic+4000
- Naomi Osaka+4000
- Barbora Krejcikova+5000
- Belinda Bencic+5000
- Marta Kostyuk+5000
- Alexandra Eala+8000
- Serena Williams+8000
Her path could become difficult quickly. If she wins her opener, the next rounds may bring younger players with more recent match rhythm, and a potential early meeting with Iga Swiatek would make the futures ticket much harder to justify.
Serena’s best argument at +8000 is that grass can reward power, serving, and experience more than some other surfaces. Her weakest argument is that seven matches over two weeks require more than isolated flashes.
2026 Wimbledon Favorites And Former Winners
The top of the futures board is led by Aryna Sabalenka at +370, Elena Rybakina at +550, and defending champion Iga Swiatek at +900. Sabalenka’s power game translates well to grass if she controls errors, while Rybakina already owns a Wimbledon title and has one of the cleanest serve-plus-one games in the women’s field.
Our prediction to win Wimbledon is Elena Rybakina. Aryna Sabalenka is the top name on the board and has the power to beat anyone, but Rybakina’s game is especially well built for grass. Her serve can control matches, she keeps points short, and she has already proven she can handle the pressure of winning this tournament.
At +550, Rybakina sits close enough to the favorite range without carrying the shortest price, making her our preferred pick among the top contenders.
For a sleeper, Naomi Osaka at +4000 is worth considering. She has not always been viewed as a grass-court specialist, but her serve, baseline power, and major-title experience make her more dangerous than a typical long shot.
If Osaka finds rhythm early and avoids extended rallies, she has the type of game that can trouble higher-seeded players. Serena Williams remains the most interesting story at +8000, but Osaka looks like the more realistic dark-horse candidate to make a deeper run.
Wimbledon Odds available at Bovada (SportsBetting.Legal Bovada Review) | ESPN
