The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South for the past three seasons. However, their position as the top franchise has not been dominant, as the Bucs finished with a 9-8 record in 2022 and 2023.
2023-24 NFC South Standings
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-8
- New Orleans Saints 9-8
- Atlanta Falcons 7-10
- Carolina Panthers 2-15
Current division futures suggest that the Atlanta Falcons and their revamped offense will rise to the top of the South, with moneyline odds placing them well ahead of the rest of the pack.
NFC South Winner
- Atlanta Falcons -140
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +350
- New Orleans Saints +400
- Carolina Panthers +900
Atlanta Falcons
There’s no question that Atlanta should improve on last year’s performance. The franchise appears to have finally found a solution to their mediocre quarterback play since the departure of Matt Ryan.
The acquisition of Kirk Cousins solidified them at QB going forth, but the situation became complicated when the Falcons drafted Michael Penix, Jr. in the first round back in April.
Despite the competition, ESPN reports the relationship between Cousins and Penix Jr. has been good thus far.
Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Wins
- Over 9.5 Wins -150
- Under 9.5 Wins +115
Cousins should remain at the helm unless the wheels fall off early, but Atlanta may still be a season away from moving to the next level.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young enters his second season looking to build on a rookie campaign that didn’t produce many wins. The Panthers are projected to win six games, which is within reason due to the state of the division at the moment.
Carolina Panthers Regular Season Wins
- Over 5.5 Wins -160
- Under 5.5 Wins +120
However, the patchwork condition of the offense does little to strike fear in their opponents. We like the under on this Panthers win-loss prop.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints won the division from 2017 through 2020. Since then, they’ve gone 9-8, 7-10, and 9-8. NFL prop bets suggest they’ll finish similarly this year—somewhere around .500 and in second place in the South.
New Orleans Saints Regular Season Wins
- Over 7.5 Wins -130
- Under 7.5 Wins EVEN
The NO defense looks solid, but their aged offensive unit will struggle to outpace other franchises.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are still coasting off the fumes that won Super Bowl LV in 2021. Plug-in-play Brady replacement Baker Mayfield has performed well above expectations and has kept Tampa Bay’s head above water the last two seasons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Regular Season Wins
- Over 7.5 Wins -150
- Under 7.5 Wins +115
Quality elements are in place in central Florida on both sides of the ball, making them a tough out for anyone in the NFC South. The team that wins the division this year will likely need to take both games against the Bucs, and we’re not confident any of them can.
We like Tampa Bay as an underdog pick to win the division for one more year before the Falcons take over. NFL sportsbooks are currently offering $3.50 on the dollar for a Buccaneers division win.
