The men’s draw at Wimbledon looks very different this year without Carlos Alcaraz in the field. Alcaraz, a two-time Wimbledon champion, is not playing the 2026 tournament after dealing with a right wrist injury that interrupted his season and kept him out of the grass-court swing. His absence removes one of the sport’s best grass-court players, one of Jannik Sinner’s clearest rivals, and one of the few names who could have reshaped the market for Wimbledon betting on reputation alone.
2026 Wimbledon Futures – Men’s
- Jannik Sinner-140
- Novak Djokovic+650
- Taylor Fritz+900
- Alexander Zverev+1000
- Daniil Medvedev+3300
- Jakub Mensik+4000
- Alex de Minaur+4500
- Felix Auger-Aliassime+5000
- Frances Tiafoe+5000
- Matteo Berrettini+5000
- Tommy Paul+6600
- Arthur Fils+8000
- Flavio Cobolli+8000
- Joao Fonseca+8000
- Rafael Jodar+8000
That leaves Sinner as the clear headline name in the men’s futures odds. The Italian is listed at -140 in the futures odds, which is a heavy number for a Grand Slam before the tournament has fully played out. Novak Djokovic follows at +650, with Taylor Fritz at +900, Alexander Zverev at +1000, and the rest of the field drifting into much longer territory.
The odds tell part of the story, but not all of it. Wimbledon can be a difficult tournament to price because grass rewards serving, first-strike tennis, movement, and comfort in tight sets. One awkward opponent, one rain delay, or one bad serving day can change the entire path.
Jannik Sinner Is The Clear Favorite
Sinner enters Wimbledon as the player most likely to benefit from Alcaraz’s absence. He is the defending men’s champion and the No. 1 seed, which gives the market a clear reason to make him the player everyone else is chasing.
The case for Sinner is straightforward. His baseline game travels well, his return pressure makes even strong servers uncomfortable, and his serve has become a more reliable weapon than it was earlier in his career. On grass, that combination matters because he can win quick service games while still creating chances against players who rely heavily on holding serve.
The concern is not whether Sinner belongs at the top of the board. He does. The question is whether the price leaves much room for risk. At -140, bettors are not getting a speculative number. They are paying for the most obvious answer in the field. That can still be the right side, but it requires confidence that Sinner will handle the pressure, the draw, and the grass-court variance that often makes Wimbledon dangerous.
Novak Djokovic Still Has A Real Path
Djokovic at +650 is not just a legacy price in tennis betting. Even at this stage of his career, he remains one of the most dangerous grass-court players in the sport. Wimbledon rewards experience, court management, and the ability to win important points without overplaying. Few players have done that better than Djokovic.
His case is built less around week-to-week dominance and more around trust. He knows how to manage best-of-five matches, how to survive uneven stretches, and how to make opponents play uncomfortable points late in sets. That matters at Wimbledon, where one tiebreak can swing an entire match.
The hesitation is physical ceiling. Djokovic does not need to be at his absolute peak to beat most players, but beating Sinner over five sets would likely require a very high level for an extended period. Still, among the players behind Sinner, Djokovic is the one with the clearest championship profile.
Alexander Zverev Brings Value And Questions
Zverev sits in an interesting range at +1000. He is not priced like a long shot, but he is far enough behind Sinner and Djokovic to draw attention from bettors who do not want to lay a short futures number.
The appeal is obvious. Zverev has the serve, backhand, and physical presence to hold up over two weeks. If he is serving well, he can shorten matches and avoid the kind of long rallies that expose him on faster surfaces. He also has enough experience in major tournaments to make the stage not too big.
The question is whether his game is naturally suited to winning Wimbledon specifically. He can absolutely beat high-level opponents on grass, but he still has to prove he can string together the clean, aggressive, low-error tennis needed to win seven matches at the All England Club. As a betting option, he is more interesting than comfortable.
Wimbledon Sleepers Worth Watching
The middle and lower parts of the board are where the tournament gets more creative. Daniil Medvedev at +3300 has the pedigree and awkward style to frustrate opponents, even if grass is not his most natural surface. Jakub Mensik at +4000 is a high-upside name with power that can play well on quicker courts. Alex de Minaur at +4500 brings speed, consistency, and return pressure, which can make him a difficult out if the draw opens.
The longer numbers also include several players with specific grass-court tools. Matteo Berrettini, at +5000, has the serve-and-forehand combination to bother almost anyone if healthy. Taylor Fritz, though shorter at +900, fits the grass profile well enough to be taken seriously. Tommy Paul at +6600 and Frances Tiafoe at +5000 give the board an American presence with athleticism and first-strike ability.
Sinner is the rightful favorite, and Djokovic is the most believable alternative. But with Alcaraz absent, the men’s Wimbledon futures market has more room for movement than usual. Bettors looking beyond the favorite should focus less on name value and more on grass-court traits: serve quality, return pressure, tiebreak strength, and the ability to stay composed when sets are decided by only a few points.
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