The Jacksonville Jaguars entered last year as the preseason favorites to win the AFC South and potentially advance in the playoffs. The Jags won the division two years ago with a 9-8 record and appeared poised to improve on that mark.
Instead, the Jaguars plateaued, while CJ Stroud’s arrival in Houston jettisoned the Texans to an AFC South championship during his rookie campaign.
2023-24 AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans 10-7
- Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8
- Indianapolis Colts 9-8
- Tennessee Titans 6-11
Now, the Texans are on the cusp of being one of the most elite NFL franchises around.
According to the NFL futures for the AFC South, oddsmakers are expecting a very similar outcome this year. The only difference is that the Texans are projected to win by a greater margin over the rest of the pack.
2024-25 AFC South Futures
- Houston Texans -120
- Jacksonville Jaguars +320
- Indianapolis Colts +330
- Tennessee Titans +1000
Houston Texans
Not only is CJ Stroud well ahead of schedule in year two, but his Texans already own the South and have replaced the Jaguars as the darlings of the division. They’ve added WR Stefon Diggs in the offseason, which should ignite the offense and help push Stroud toward the 5,000-yard passing mark.
2024-25 Regular Season Wins – Houston Texans
- Over 9.5 Wins -150
- Under 9.5 Wins +115
The over suggests that Houston will easily collect ten wins this year. We agree and expect them to finish closer to 12-5. Bet on the Texans to capture a top-three seed in the AFC.
Indianapolis Colts
Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is now 100% healthy after a rookie season in which he showed flashes of brilliance during his limited playing time. The Colts’ depth chart on offense doesn’t include much elite-level support for Richardson, so temper expectations for his statistical output in 2024-25.
Regular Season Wins – Indianapolis Colts
- Over 8.5 Wins -115
- Under 8.5 Wins -115
The most intriguing battle in the division this season may be who steps up and finishes second, which the odds suggest will come down to the Colts and Jags. Jacksonville and Indianapolis play each other in Week 18, and whoever wins that final game could be in line for a Wild Card berth.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The odds imply that the Jaguars will have an easier time than the Colts in reaching nine wins, but not by much. While Jacksonville is no longer an NFL cellar dweller, team ownership has capped their potential.
Regular Season Wins – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Over 8.5 Wins -120
- Under 8.5 Wins -110
There’s just not enough talent spread out across the roster to command fear in their opponents, and there are no real key players that teams have to gameplan for other than all-purpose running back Travis Etienne Jr. If we had to place a wager on this line, we’d take the under.
Tennessee Titans
A third divisional team will start the season with a second-year quarterback. This time, Will Levis will replace Ryan Tannehill after a relatively successful tenure.
Regular Season Wins – Tennessee Titans
- Over 6.5 Wins EVEN
- Under 6.5 Wins -130
We don’t anticipate much from the Titans during Levis’s sophomore campaign, especially now that running back Derrick Henry is no longer with the team. With expectations so low, Levis doesn’t face the immediate pressure to win like Richardson and, to some extent, Stroud.
That said, we’d be shocked if Tennessee wins 7 games.
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