The 43rd MTV Video Music Awards are approaching, and entertainment betting markets are taking shape around several of the ceremony’s biggest categories. The 2026 VMAs will air live from Los Angeles on Sunday, September 27, at 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS, with a simulcast on MTV and streaming on Paramount+. Fan voting for most eligible categories remains open through September 25, while Best New Artist voting continues into the show itself.
Madonna leads this year’s field with 11 nominations, followed by Taylor Swift with nine. Ariana Grande and Sabrina Carpenter have seven apiece, giving several familiar names opportunities to collect multiple Moon Person trophies. BetUS has posted odds on four headline categories, including Artist of the Year, Video of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist.
MTV VMA Artist Of The Year Odds
Taylor Swift -150
Madonna +200
Ariana Grande +350
Morgan Wallen +3500
Bruno Mars +4000
Sabrina Carpenter +5000
Artist of the Year brings together six performers with very different musical footprints, but the nomination totals immediately make Taylor Swift and Madonna stand out. Swift enters the ceremony with nine nominations, while Madonna leads everyone with 11. Ariana Grande is also heavily represented with seven nominations.
Madonna also has one of the night’s biggest storylines. She is scheduled to return to the VMA stage for her first performance in more than two decades, adding another layer of attention to an already nomination-heavy night.
BetUS has installed Swift as the -150 favorite, meaning bettors must risk $150 to win $100 in profit. Madonna is the closest challenger at +200, while Grande sits within striking distance at +350.
The odds for betting on the MTV VMAs then drop sharply. Morgan Wallen is +3500, Bruno Mars is +4000, and Sabrina Carpenter is the biggest long shot at +5000. That pricing makes Artist of the Year essentially a three-person race according to the sportsbook, despite all six performers officially appearing on the ballot.
MTV VMA Best New Artist Odds
Sienna Spiro -150
CORTIS +150
Malcolm Todd +1400
Stella Lefty +1400
Best New Artist is slightly unusual because MTV’s official nomination list includes seven performers: Bella Kay, CORTIS, Magnus Ferrell, Malcolm Todd, Myles Smith, Sienna Spiro, and Stella Lefty. The BetUS market supplied here currently lists odds for only four of them.
Another important wrinkle is voting. Unlike most VMA categories, which close their fan voting before the ceremony, voting for Best New Artist remains active into the show. That creates the possibility of late momentum having a bigger impact here than in some of the other major awards.
Sienna Spiro is the favorite at -150, but CORTIS is close behind at +150. The odds suggest considerably more uncertainty than in some other VMA markets.
Malcolm Todd and Stella Lefty are each priced at +1400, creating a substantial gap between the top two and the remaining listed choices. Because not every official nominee currently has a price in the supplied BetUS market, bettors should also check the board before wagering to see whether additional options have been added.
MTV VMA Video Of The Year Odds
Taylor Swift – “The Fate of Ophelia” -200
Madonna – “Confessions II – The Film” +225
Ariana Grande – “hate that i made you love me” +500
Sabrina Carpenter – “Tears” +1600
Bruno Mars – “I Just Might” +5000
GENER8ION – “STORM starring Yung Lean” +5000
Video of the Year includes the same six entries confirmed by MTV, and several also appear throughout the technical categories. Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia,” for example, picked up nominations for direction, art direction, cinematography, editing, choreography, and visual effects in addition to the night’s top video honor.
Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” has a similarly broad awards footprint, helping explain why the two artists occupy the top of this market.
Swift is an even stronger favorite here than she is for Artist of the Year, with -200 odds on “The Fate of Ophelia.” Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” follows at +225, while Grande’s “hate that i made you love me” is +500.
The payouts increase considerably after the top three. Carpenter is +1600, while Mars and GENER8ION are both +5000. From a betting perspective, the line suggests the sportsbook sees Swift and Madonna as the central matchup, with Grande positioned as the most realistic alternative.
MTV VMA Song Of The Year Odds
BTS – “Swim” -200
Ella Langley – “Choosin’ Texas” +350
Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter – “Bring Your Love” +500
Olivia Dean – “Man I Need” +1200
RAYE – “WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!” +1400
PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson – “Stateside” +1400
HUNTR/X – “Golden” – No odds listed
Song of the Year may be the most stylistically varied of the four markets. MTV’s official ballot includes BTS, Ella Langley, HUNTR/X, Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter, Olivia Dean, PinkPantheress with Zara Larsson, and RAYE.
It also creates opportunities for artists outside the Artist of the Year field to capture one of the ceremony’s most visible awards. HUNTR/X’s “Golden” is an official nominee, although the supplied BetUS board does not currently show a moneyline price for the song.
Entertainment prop bets suggest that BTS is the clear betting favorite at -200 for “Swim.” Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” is the second choice at +350, while the Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter collaboration “Bring Your Love” sits at +500.
Olivia Dean follows at +1200, with RAYE and PinkPantheress/Zara Larsson each priced at +1400. With fan voting remaining open until shortly before the awards, these markets could still move as the September 27 ceremony approaches.
Odds For The 2026 MTV VMAs Provided By BetUS (BetUS Sportsbook Review) | Rolling Stone
