The 2026 Home Run Derby brings eight of baseball’s most dangerous power hitters to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Monday night, with the competition scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET.
This year’s event will use a new untimed format. Each participant receives 20 swings in the opening round, while the semifinalists and finalists will receive 15 swings per round. The four highest first-round totals advance, with the longest home run serving as the initial tiebreaker.
Philadelphia teammates Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper will have the home crowd behind them, but Junior Caminero, Jordan Walker and Munetaka Murakami are also among the leading contenders.
2026 Home Run Derby Winner Odds
- Kyle Schwarber +360
- Junior Caminero +375
- Munetaka Murakami +525
- Jordan Walker +600
- Bryce Harper +700
- Jac Caglianone +750
- Ben Rice +900
- Willson Contreras +1800
Schwarber narrowly enters as the favorite ahead of Caminero at MLB sportsbook sites. The Phillies slugger is making his third Derby appearance. He reached the 2018 final before losing 19–18 to Harper and was eliminated by Albert Pujols in the opening round in 2022.
Harper’s +700 price carries plenty of storyline value. He won the 2018 competition in Washington and now has an opportunity to capture another title in front of a hometown crowd.
Caminero offers both experience and recent success. The Rays third baseman finished as the runner-up to Cal Raleigh in 2025, making his +375 odds understandable. Murakami and Walker are shorter-priced first-time entrants with the raw strength to benefit from the swing-based format.
Player to Hit the Longest Home Run
- Kyle Schwarber +250
- Junior Caminero +400
- Jordan Walker +450
- Jac Caglianone +500
- Munetaka Murakami +700
- Willson Contreras +1200
- Bryce Harper +1200
- Ben Rice +2000
Schwarber has +250 moneyline odds to hit the longest home run, making him a much clearer favorite than he is to win the tournament. Bettors do not need him to survive every round; they only need one perfectly struck baseball.
Caminero, Walker and Caglianone form the next tier. All three possess the combination of bat speed and strength required to challenge the deepest sections of Citizens Bank Park. Caglianone is particularly interesting at +500 because this market rewards maximum distance rather than consistency across several rounds.
Harper is priced at +1200 at MLB All-Star Game betting sites, despite his history of winning the event. His lower position suggests oddsmakers view him as a stronger tournament competitor than a likely source of the night’s single longest blast.
Will Anyone Hit a 500-Foot Home Run?
- Yes +220
- No -300
The odds make “No” a substantial favorite, implying that a 500-foot home run is possible but unlikely. Derby conditions, repeated swings and favorable pitches can produce distances rarely seen during regular games, but 500 feet remains an extreme benchmark.
The new format may also reduce the chances. With a limited number of swings rather than a running clock, hitters could prioritize repeatable launch angles over selling out for one enormous shot.
Distance of the Longest Home Run
- Over 485.5 Feet -115
- Under 485.5 Feet -115
Oddsmakers see the longest-home-run distance as a virtual coin flip. The line at 485.5 feet suggests at least one memorable drive, even though the market remains skeptical that anyone will reach 500.
The Over provides a middle ground for bettors expecting Schwarber, Caminero, or another power hitter to approach the historic threshold without clearing it. The Under instead relies on Citizens Bank Park producing plenty of home runs but no truly extraordinary performance.
