As of early 2026, the Trump administration has made the acquisition of Greenland a central pillar of its “Donroe Doctrine,” a modern reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. This has sparked significant international tension, particularly with Denmark and NATO allies.
BetUS has released a series of odds on Greenland’s future, including its potential statehood and whether the US will purchase the country or invade it.
Which Country Will Trump/USA Invade First?
- Panama -260
- Greenland +170
The odds heavily favor Panama (-260) over Greenland (+170). This reflects recent actions where the administration pressured Panama to limit Chinese investment in the Canal, citing “economic security.”
While rhetoric regarding Greenland is high, Panama is seen as a more immediate “low-hanging fruit” for reasserting Western Hemisphere dominance. However, the 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has signaled that the administration is willing to use force unilaterally in the region, keeping both options on the table.
Will The US Military Launch An Offensive Action Against Greenland or Denmark?
- Yes +350
With odds at +350, an offensive is considered unlikely but not impossible. Currently, Denmark has bolstered its Arctic presence with additional troops and ships to signal sovereignty.
President Trump has stated he “won’t rule out” the use of force to prevent Chinese or Russian encroachment, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled a preference for negotiations.
The arrival of European troops in Nuuk acts as a deterrent, raising the political cost of any potential US military intervention.
Will Greenland Become A US State In 2026?
- Yes +750
The +750 moneyline odds suggest statehood is highly improbable this year. Statehood requires not only US Congressional approval but also the consent of Greenland’s population, which remains overwhelmingly opposed to being “owned” by the US.
Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has explicitly stated that Greenland chooses Denmark and the EU over the US. Current discussions are more focused on a “Compact of Free Association” rather than full statehood or annexation.
Will The USA Gain Control Of Greenland Before 2027?
- Yes +1000
At +1000, the likelihood of a full takeover within the next year is low. The above political prop bet implies a 10-to-1 likelihood that Greenland will remain under Dember’s control for the remainder of this year.
Although a US special envoy recently claimed a deal “should and will be made,” Denmark remains firm that the island is not for sale.
Diplomacy is currently at a “fundamental disagreement” phase. Most analysts believe the US could achieve at most an expanded military footprint or a more formal “security partnership” rather than total sovereign control.
How Much Will Trump/USA Offer For The Purchase Of Greenland?
- Over 1.5 Trillion USD -200
- Under 1.5 Trillion USD +150
The market leans toward over 1.5 trillion USD (-200). While internal White House estimates initially ranged from $500–$700 billion, experts argue that to actually sway Denmark and compensate for the loss of territory and mineral rights (rare-earth elements), the offer would need to exceed $1.5 trillion.
This reflects the “real estate” value Trump associates with the island’s vast untapped resources and its strategic role in the “Golden Dome” missile defense system.
First Sport To Have A Team In Greenland
- NHL -125
- NFL +250
- MLB +300
- NBA +800
The NHL (-125) is the frontrunner, as hockey aligns with Greenland’s climate and existing (though limited) ice infrastructure. The NFL (+250) and MLB (+300) follow, though their inclusion is largely tied to “Freedom City” concepts—proposed US-led infrastructure projects intended to modernize the island.
However, the lack of a large population center or a climate-controlled stadium makes any professional sports expansion a long-term project dependent on massive US investment.
