The Octagon returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday, March 7, 2026, for a monumental UFC 326 card. Headlined by a “BMF” title rematch over a decade in the making, the event features two of the sport’s most prolific icons in Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira.
With the main card set to kick off at 10:00 PM ET, the night promises high-stakes implications for both the lightweight and middleweight divisions. Below, we break down the latest lines for UFC betting.
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder Betting Line
- Caio Borralho -270
- Reinier De Ridder +220
- Over 2.5 Rounds: -200
- Under 2.5 Rounds: +150
- Bovada
The middleweight co-main event at UFC 326 features a high-stakes clash between #7-ranked Caio Borralho and #8-ranked Reinier de Ridder, with both men looking to re-establish themselves as elite contenders. Borralho enters the Octagon for the first time since a hard-fought loss to Nassourdine Imavov in late 2025, which snapped a dominant six-fight UFC winning streak that included a career-best victory over Jared Cannonier.
Meanwhile, de Ridder seeks to bounce back after a grueling corner-stoppage loss to Brendan Allen last October. Prior to that setback, “The Dutch Knight” had been on a tear, securing high-profile wins over Robert Whittaker and Bo Nickal.
Alternate Lines
- BetOnline: Borralho -275, de Ridder +235
- BetUS: Borralho -275, de Ridder +226
- MyBookie: Borralho -300, de Ridder +222
- BookMaker: Borralho -288, de Ridder +225
Shopping the betting lines shows that the odds for de Ridder are pretty tight, while Borralho has a variance of 25 points.
Borralho’s status as a sizable favorite is largely due to his superior 76% takedown defense and more polished striking. While de Ridder is a world-class submission specialist, his struggles against the elite wrestling and clinch work of Allen have bettors wary of his path to victory here.
If de Ridder cannot secure an early sub, he faces a steep uphill battle against Borralho’s disciplined counter-striking and defensive awareness.
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira Betting Line
- Max Holloway -225
- Charles Oliveira +185
- Over 3.5 Rounds: -115
- Under 3.5 Rounds: -115
- Bovada
The main event of UFC 326 serves as a legacy-defining rematch for the “BMF” title, 11 years after their first encounter ended in a freak injury.
Since that 2015 meeting, both Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira have become undisputed champions and surefire Hall of Famers. Holloway enters this bout coming off a massive lightweight win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 318, proving his durability translates perfectly to 155 pounds.
Oliveira, meanwhile, is looking to reclaim his momentum after a summer loss to Ilia Topuria. With Holloway landing a staggering 7.20 significant strikes per minute compared to Oliveira’s 3.35, the stylistic clash remains a battle of volume versus finishing instinct
Alternate Lines
- BetOnline: Holloway -225, Oliveira +190
- BetUS: Holloway -226, Oliveira +185
- MyBookie: Holloway [offline], Oliveira [offline]
- BookMaker: Holloway -241, Oliveira +191
The betting lines currently position Holloway as a firm -225 favorite, a reflection of his legendary chin and superior cardio in five-round affairs. Despite Oliveira holding the record for most finishes in UFC history (21), oddsmakers seem to favor Holloway’s ability to stay technical and avoid the “controlled chaos” that the Brazilian thrives in.
The pick-em total for 3.5 rounds suggests a high degree of uncertainty regarding the finish; while both men are known for their high-paced aggression, Holloway has proven nearly impossible to stop, whereas Oliveira’s aggressive “march down” style often leads to either a quick submission or a prolonged war of attrition.
Will The Holloway Oliveira Fight Go The Distance?
- Yes +150
- No -200
- Bovada
This market offers a fascinating look into the expected volatility of this BMF title defense. At -200 for the “No” prop, the betting public is banking on a finish, likely influenced by Oliveira’s aggressive pursuit of submissions and Holloway’s recent display of power in the lightweight division.
The +150 “Yes” line presents decent value for those who believe Holloway can utilize his elite 83% takedown defense to keep the fight standing and cruise to a decision. Given that both fighters have evolved significantly since their featherweight days, the market is bracing for a high-intensity encounter that likely won’t require the judges’ scorecards.
