Thanksgiving travel in the USA this year is shaping up to be particularly challenging as millions of Americans hit the roads and airports amid lingering disruptions from a recent 43-day government shutdown.
While the Federal Aviation Administration has lifted flight restrictions and air travel is returning to near-normal operations, travelers should still expect crowded highways, long security lines, and potential airport delays.
Over 81 million people are projected to travel at least 50 miles during the holiday period, with about 73 million opting for car travel, which will lead to heavy congestion on key travel days like November 25, 26, and 30.
Entertainment betting sites have created a series of props that ask a number of questions regarding travel over the holiday week.
Total Percentage Of Canceled Flights – Monday to Sunday
- Over 0.55% Flights -130
- Under 0.55% Flights -110
Thanksgiving Week – Total Canceled Flights
- Over 125.5 Flights -135
- Under 125.5 Flights -105
2025 Thanksgiving Week – Total Delayed Flights Percentage
- Over 18.5 Percent -130
- Under 18.5 Percent -110
Thanksgiving Week – Total Percentage Of Delayed Flights On Sunday, November 30th
- Over 22.5 Percent -120
- Under 22.5 Percent -120
Compared to last year, the odds for Thanksgiving 2025 suggest a slight improvement but still notable travel disruptions. Flight cancellations are expected to be around 0.55%, similar to or marginally lower than 2024 levels, when some airlines faced up to 5% cancellations.
Delays remain high, with over 18.5% of flights delayed this week, slightly better than last year’s nearly 19-22% range during peak Thanksgiving travel. Sunday, Nov 30, typically the busiest day, is predicted to see over 22.5% delays, aligning closely with last year’s figures, which peaked around 25%.
Overall, while cancellations may decrease a bit, delays continue to pose significant travel challenges this holiday season.
Will There Be An Increase In The Number Of Travelers Compared To 2024?
- Yes -130
- No -110
Will The Number Of TSA Travelers Exceed 3.1 Million?
- Yes +180
- No -280
How Many People Will Head 50 Miles Or More From Home Over Thanksgiving?
- Over 81.5 Million -135
- Under 81.5 Million -105
How Many People Will Travel By Car?
- Over 73.5 Million -140
- Under 73.5 Million EVEN
How Many People Will Fly Domestically?
- Over 5.5 Million -165
- Under 5.5 Million +120
The above entertainment prop bets imply a notable increase in Thanksgiving travel for 2025 compared to 2024.
The likelihood of more travelers overall is favored, with a -130 line on increased traveler numbers, and TSA screening is expected to surpass the 3.1 million mark, though at higher odds (+180), indicating some uncertainty.
Over 81.5 million people are predicted to travel 50 miles or more, exceeding 2024 by about 1.6 million, with a substantial majority (over 73.5 million) opting to travel by car.
Air travel is also expected to grow, with over 5.5 million domestic flyers, up 2% from last year. These indicators reflect a record-breaking holiday travel season with busier airports and roads, driven by a recovering post-shutdown travel surge and relatively steady gas prices, helping to keep car travel affordable despite inflation.
Thanksgiving odds courtesy of BetUS Sportsbook | AAA Newsroom
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